South Africa’s big drop in active coronavirus cases explained
Health Minister Zweli Mkhize announced on Friday that of the 2,003 people in South Africa who tested positive for the COVID-19 coronavirus, 24 have died and 410 have recovered.
This represents a significant jump in the number of recoveries in South Africa. It also means that the number of active cases in South Africa appear to have declined from 1,871 on 9 April to 1,569 on 10 April.
However, while it may appear there was a sharp decline in active cases, it is important to keep in mind that South Africa’s recovery statistics are not regularly updated.
The last time Mkhize announced an update to the number of people who had recovered from the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was 2 April, when he stated there were “close to 45”.
The chart below illustrates the irregularity in the reporting of recovery statistics and plots it against the number of people who have died due to COVID-19.
Coronavirus recoveries in South Africa
Active vs total confirmed cases
To see what the number of active cases would have looked like if there were regular updates, the chart below plots the total active cases with recovery numbers averaged out between updates.
For comparison, it also shows graphs of the total number of confirmed cases and the raw data for the number of active cases.
The chart shows that there wasn’t a decline in the number of active cases when you take into account that updates on the number of recoveries are infrequent.
Lower number of new cases than expected
The number of new coronavirus cases being reported in South Africa remains low, however, despite an increase in the number of people being tested for the virus.
Mkhize recently said the government had predicted between 4,000 and 5,000 total cases by 2 April.
Mkhize said there are several reasons the number of coronavirus cases is trending below estimates, including closing South Africa’s borders quickly, quarantining inbound travellers, enforcing a lockdown, and preventing mass gatherings.
Mkhize stated that the lockdown stopped the importation of the virus from overseas and helped South Africa avoid a sudden rise in infections.
“The unity that has been shown during this time has begun to show green shoots. It is possible that we may be able to buck the trend and chart our own path,” Mkhize said.
Mkhize added that they are checking hospital admissions and there has not been a sudden rise in patients going to hospital. No sudden rise in the number of deaths has taken place, either.
While 456,074 people have been screened for the coronavirus so far, Mkhize said they need to scale up the screening of patients in various communities.
It should be noted that these screening procedures are not laboratory tests for the coronavirus, but a series of checks to determine whether someone should be referred to a facility for a full test.
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