Technology3.01.2006

World Broadband Growth Continues, South Africa lagging further behind

At the end of 2005 there were 205 million broadband connections worldwide, consisting mostly of DSL and Cable.

The USA, China and Japan dominate the broadband environment when it comes to the number of subscribers.

“The USA remains the largest broadband market with over 40.9m lines. China comes in second place reaching 35.0m lines and Japan is third with 20.9m lines.” states Point Topic.

An interesting development is that the UK is now Europe’s broadband leader with 9.8 million broadband lines. They overtook the previous leader France which has 9.7 million connections.

Point Topic writes that ‘although having one of the smallest shares of broadband accesses, the Middle East and Africa is now the fastest growing region of the world, gaining some 16.5% in Q3 2005. Turkey, Morocco and South Africa all gained over 30% in this quarter alone.’

These percentages indicate a step in the right direction, but the figures can be deceiving due to the low broadband penetration rates in these countries.

In the UK around 900 000 new broadband connections are installed every four months. This translates into an increased broadband penetration of nearly 6 % per year. Other countries like Australia and New Zealand are showing similar growth.

When we compare this figure to South Africa’s total broadband penetration of around 0.4% it is clear that something is amiss.

Papi Molotsane, CEO of Telkom, has promised an ADSL line-penetration rate of between 15% and 20% by the end of 2008, but this will only be possible with a massive reduction in price.

Another hindering factor in the growth of local broadband is the excessive waiting period when ordering ADSL. ICASA has proposed an installation time of 14 days, but it is unlikely that Telkom will be able to meet such deadlines without employing more staff.

At the current ‘promised’ rate of 4000 installations per week (a figure given to the media at a recent Telkom press briefing) Papi’s target of 680 000 ADSL lines by December 2008 is on track.

Unfortunately Telkom has fed the South African media and public so many lies in the past that only time will tell whether these figures are accurate and the promised growth achievable.

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