Space agency warns possible severe solar storm could hit South Africa
The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) says the country can expect geomagnetic storm conditions to increase over the next 24 hours.
This is due to the arrival of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), which was triggered by a long-duration X1.9 solar flare on Sunday, 18 January at around 20:00.
“A solar flare is a sudden burst of light from the Sun with an immediate impact on the Earth’s day side, disrupting high-frequency radio communications,” SANSA explained.
“Solar flares are ranked in five categories — A, B, C, M and X — based on their intensity. A-class flares are the weakest, while X-class flares are the most energetic.”
The African region was not affected by the high-frequency radio blackout on Sunday, as it was mostly out of the flare’s impact range.
“The solar flare triggered a coronal mass ejection, which is a cloud of plasma released from the sun. This CME is Earth-directed, currently travelling from the Sun to the Earth,” SANSA said.
“It is expected to impact Earth from the early hours of Tuesday, 20 January. This impact will interact with the Earth’s magnetic field and cause a geomagnetic storm.”
SANSA said the geomagnetic storm could reach G4/Severe storm conditions, with the G-scale ranging from G1/Minor to G5/Extreme.
The SANSA Space Weather Centre forecast that at least G1/Minor to G2/Moderate storms were expected, with G3/Strong storms likely. G4/Severe storms are a possibility.
“Unlike terrestrial storms, geomagnetic storms largely go unnoticed by people because their effects are felt mainly through technological systems,” the space agency explained.
“Navigation, communication, and electricity networks are the most at risk.”
Industries such as aviation and drone operations can be affected by the impact on navigation systems. SANSA said they should take note of the K-Index.
The K-Index is a standardised, global measure (0-9) of geomagnetic activity, showing how much the Earth’s magnetic field is disturbed.
SANSA operates a local K-Index at SANSA Hermanus, which can be tracked on its space weather centre website.
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