Companies like Afrihost and Capitec about to become very important to Vodacom and MTN — report
South Africa’s mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market is expected to more than triple by 2030, driven by banks, eSIM adoption, and ecosystem-led business models, Africa Analysis predicted.
In its 2026 South Africa MVNO Market Outlook Report, the market research firm found that the local MVNO market reached 4.4 million active SIMs in 2025.
The report estimated that MVNOs accounted for 3.7% of South Africa’s retail mobile market in 2025, following annual subscriber growth of 43%.
Africa Analysis forecast that the MVNO market would grow to 14.4 million SIMs by 2030, representing 12.5% of the country’s retail mobile market.
The company said the South African market had moved beyond its early niche phase and was becoming a strategic customer engagement channel.
Banks, retailers, insurers, Internet service providers, and digital platforms were increasingly using mobile connectivity to support loyalty, retention, and broader digital services.
Capitec Connect was the largest MVNO in South Africa at the end of 2025, with Africa Analysis stating it had around 1.9 million subscribers.
Africa Analysis said this accounted for roughly 41% of the country’s MVNO market, making banking-led operators the segment’s strongest growth engine.
Capitec most recently reported that it had 1.5 million 90-day active users by 28 February 2026 and that its MVNO’s net income had increased by 129%, from R193 million to R442 million.
That made Capitec an incredibly valuable customer to its mobile virtual network enabler (MVNE), Cell C, boosting its overall subscriber growth.
Given Africa Analysis’s conclusion that it would become the market’s growth engine, companies that can launch successful MVNO plays will become important to incumbent operators like Vodacom and MTN.
“The South African MVNO market has entered a fundamentally different phase of development,” said Africa Analysis Team managing director Andre Wills.
“We are seeing connectivity embedded into broader customer ecosystems where the primary objective is no longer selling airtime.”
Instead, Wills said it was about improving customer engagement, loyalty and retention. “This represents the emergence of the MVNO 3.0 model,” he said.
Banking MVNOs driving growth
Will said other banking MVNOs, including FNB Connect, Standard Bank Mobile, and Nedbank Connect, were also using connectivity to strengthen their customer ecosystems.
He described the rise of “MVNO 3.0” as mobile services being embedded into broader banking, retail, insurance, and digital ecosystems.
Under this model, connectivity becomes a service layer that supports existing customer relationships rather than operating as a standalone telecommunications product.
Wills said South Africa still had substantial room for growth when compared with leading global MVNO markets of a similar age.
The report found that South Africa’s MVNO market share stood at 3.7% in 2025, compared with 12.6% in comparable international markets.
This suggested that the local market remained underpenetrated, particularly as more consumer-facing brands move into digital services and embedded connectivity.
eSIM technology was expected to be another important catalyst for MVNO growth over the next several years, according to the report.
Africa Analysis said about 59% of South African MVNOs already support eSIM or have announced plans to introduce the technology.
eSIM removes the need for physical SIM cards, allowing operators to acquire customers digitally while reducing distribution costs and barriers to entry.
The report said future growth would likely come from banking and financial services brands, retail loyalty ecosystems, digital-first providers, ISPs, insurers, and affinity brands.
Africa Analysis said future market leaders would be determined less by price competition and more by their ability to embed connectivity into broader customer ecosystems.
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