World broadband statistics
There were 13.77 million broadband lines added in Q4 2008, taking the world total to 410.9 million lines.
“The global economic turmoil had a significant effect on growth almost across the board, but while growth was down compared to the same quarter in 2007 there were many countries that improved on their performance in the third quarter of 2008,” says Fiona Vanier, Senior Analyst at Point Topic.
France, Italy, Germany, Austria, Singapore and The Philippines all grew more quickly than in Q3 2008 and there were strong numbers from Czech Republic, Belarus, Croatia and Slovakia.
Overall however worldwide growth was down on Q3 2008 due to significant slowdowns in net adds in many of the countries that have been the powerhouses of 2008.
Growth in China halved in the quarter, the US continues to slow but while India, Brazil, Russia and Mexico were all down on Q3 2008 they still reported impressive figures against the backdrop of restricted credit and recessionary pressure.
Regional view
The days of double digit quarterly growth in the regions of the world are over, certainly for the foreseeable future. “Given the installed broadband base in the world today it’s unlikely that any regions will grow that fast in the current climate,” says Fiona Vanier.
With China and India making up such a large proportion of the lines in South and East Asia the drop in growth in those countries meant that the region as a whole ranked 4th for growth in the quarter and the slowdown in the US had a similar effect on North America as a whole.
Western Europe and Asia Pacific were the only regions to increase their growth rate in the quarter. Strong numbers from Germany, France and Italy and to an extent the UK contributed to an improvement.
Taiwan in Asia Pacific showed a drop in subscriber lines, we will be reviewing these numbers as more detail becomes available but the evidence is that there is technology substitution taking place with DSL lines dropping and fibre growing.
“Latin America was the fastest growing region, with Mexico in particular reporting healthy growth. While it has been a volatile region economically in the past there are indications that broadband can be very strong there in 2009,” says Vanier.
Technology view
DSL continues to be the most popular broadband access technology. However DSL and cable market shares are being slowly eroded.
Fibre has grown twice as fast as cable or DSL in the 12 months to Q4 2008 and this pattern should continue given the number of new implementations and consumer and business preference for higher speeds.
Value added services enabled by the bandwidth fibre offers, like IPTV, are proving strong drivers for FTTx uptake and have driven it through the 50 million mark worldwide.
Wireless and other broadband access technologies (including satellite, private circuits etc) are growing too, although starting from a low base.
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