World Broadband Statistics
According to the most recent data published in Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service broadband lines continue to increase worldwide.
Top 10 View
2008 was easily the toughest year for broadband since our records began. The 6 months at the start of the year in particular saw low growth and low net adds almost across the board. The exceptions were China and Brazil which, in common with their BRIC partners, saw much slower growth later in 2008 than earlier.
While the start of 2009 still looks shaky for the Europeans and Japan, with reasonable numbers which could go up or down in the next quarter the real stand out in Q1 is the USA with China, Brazil and to a lesser extent Canada also looking strong.
The US has posted 2 consecutive quarters of strong net adds. With an increase in real numbers not seen since early 2007.
Recent surveys indicate US consumers place a high value on a broadband connection, they are willing to cut back in other areas to make sure they can get a fast online service and this is backed up by the numbers. We note that the recent announcement of a broadband stimulus package is also likely to make a significant difference to take-up and penetration once its effects filter through.
Regional view
The regions are a mixed bag. Generally the early adopter countries and regions are struggling to return to the growth levels of previous years and there are signs that there is still bad news in the pipeline for many of these countries but there are some notable exceptions.
While North America shows a drop in percentage quarterly growth Q408 to Q109, if this is viewed in the context of the last 12 months these are actually very strong numbers. Both the US and Canada show signs of emerging from a period of slow broadband growth.
Latin America and South and East Asia are also looking healthy. Both regions are dominated by two big players, Brazil and Mexico and China and India respectively. When they do well the region does well. All four countries did suffer in late 2008, but only in relative terms, and all seem to have returned to close to or above their previous performance levels.
Western and Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa and Asia Pacific show less clarity in their results in terms of identifiable trends. All these regions had countries that fared reasonably well and others that have suffered. Q1 is traditionally a tougher quarter than Q4 so it is not surprising to see lower percentage growth, however all these regions could still have tough times ahead.
Technology view
DSL continues to lose market share to other broadband technologies. It is a slow decline but the evidence is that a gradual substitution is taking place where higher speed technologies are available.
Fibre is the only access technology growing from quarter to quarter. Generally where the three dominant technologies are available consumers will drift towards fibre. Aggressive pricing strategies have contributed to this growth.
Cable presents a mixed picture in terms of subscriber numbers. Although the overall trend has been a very slow decline in market share there is evidence that operators are responding with implementation of upgrades such as DOCSIS3.0 which significantly increases the bandwidth available as well as strategic pricing decisions designed to balance the revenue and market share drift.
Other broadband access technologies, such as fixed wireless, satellite, powerline and so on are also slowly gaining share. This is primarily due to their success at plugging the not-spots left where fixed broadband lines are uneconomic to deploy.
World broadband statistics discussion
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