Big bets for 2008
Another year is over. In little more than a fortnight, silly season will be on us again and Gautengers will be trekking to the coast in their annual pilgrimage. It’s a good time to reflect on the past 12 months and look forward to what we can expect in 2008.
It’s been a heck of a year. Who could have predicted in January that MTN would be in talks with Telkom about a potential acquisition of the fixed-line operator? And who would have thought that Google’s share price would have risen above US$700, making the company worth more than Wal-Mart?
Wild as 2007 has been, next year is going to bring even bigger news, at home and worldwide. Here, for what they’re worth, are my key predictions for the year ahead:
* Telkom will sell its stake in Vodacom to Vodafone, freeing the mobile operator to expand aggressively in fixed-line communications. Vodacom will list in the JSE’s biggest-ever initial public offering and the share price will soar on the back of the company’s aggressive expansion plans. But group CEO Alan Knott-Craig will step down by the end of the year.
* MTN will buy Telkom’s fixed-line assets, but only after intense discussions about the extent of government’s involvement in the merged business and the impact the deal will have on consumers. Government will retain a large stake, both directly and through the Public Investment Corp, but it will not enjoy the board-level control it had over Telkom.
* After years of waiting, Sentech will finally get the funding it needs to build a wireless broadband network. But it will squander this money by yet again failing to make a meaningful impact on the market. It will return to government, a year or two later, cap in hand, begging its political masters for more.
* Bandwidth caps will be doubled as Telkom slashes international bandwidth prices in anticipation of competition from Seacom, the consortium behind a new undersea cable project. Consumers who get 3GB/month on their broadband contracts can expect that to rise to at least 6GB/month by the end of next year, with no increase in price. If anything, prices will fall at the same time that the bandwidth caps are raised.
* New entrants in pay-TV will trigger a content war with incumbent MultiChoice, operator of DStv. MultiChoice will introduce its first high-definition channels as it fights hard to defend its turf. To the delight of thousands of geeks, one of the new operators will reintroduce the Sci-Fi Channel in SA. A price war is unlikely in 2008 but looks like a distinct possibility in 2009 as the new operators fight tooth and nail for market share.
* Linux will make further modest market share gains on the desktop, but Microsoft will continue to dominate with Windows and Office through 2008. One of the highlights of the year will be an exciting redesign of Ubuntu, the Linux distribution spearheaded by Mark Shuttleworth, which will cement its place as the most popular Linux desktop.
* Sony’s Blu-ray will consign HD-DVD to the trash heap by triumphing in the battle of the next-generation high-definition disc formats. Expect a Blu-ray player for Microsoft’s Xbox 360 in time for Christmas 2008.
* Apple will introduce a new version of the iPhone, sending the company’s market value soaring through $200bn. The new version will have 16GB of memory and come with a 3G HSDPA antenna and built-in satellite navigation. Apple will ink deals to sell the iPhone in more countries in Europe and will also introduce the phone in China. The Apple fans who bought the first iPhone will rush out and buy the new one the day it’s released, even if it means reassigning the old one to doorstop duty. Apple will save local fans the money by not introducing the device in SA until sometime after the soccer World Cup.
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