Predictions for 2009
It’s the end of another year; time to reflect on the 12 months just past and to make some predictions about the year ahead. Will Telkom be bought? Who will the next communications minister be? And, most importantly, will the next iPhone have a keyboard?
It’s become something of a tradition of mine to use this column at this time of year to look into my rather muddy crystal ball and make some educated guesses about what we can expect in technology in the year ahead.
But before I do so, let me reflect on some of the predictions I made this time last year — I got a few right and a few horribly wrong.
What I got right included:
* Telkom announcing that it plans to unbundle its stake in Vodacom, allowing the cellular operator to expand aggressively in fixed-line communications;
* Vodacom Group CEO Alan Knott-Craig stepping down before the end of the year;
* Sony’s high-definition Blu-ray format consigning Toshiba’s HD DVD to the scrap heap;
* Apple introducing the iPhone 3G and launching it in Europe and other countries. I did not, however, expect the handset to be available in SA in 2008.
I also got some predictions hopelessly wrong. They included:
* MTN buying Telkom’s fixed-line assets. Those talks broke down early in the year;
* Sentech finally building a broadband network. As it turns out, the state-owned company has still not secured all the funding it wants from national treasury — it is reluctant to start building a network using the R500m that has been transferred to it thus far;
* The doubling of broadband bandwidth caps for the same price. I’m still convinced this will happen — in fact, I think they will at least treble in 2009 as Seacom, the new undersea cable, comes on stream; and
* New entrants in pay-TV triggering a content war with incumbent MultiChoice, operator of DStv. In fact, none of the new operators has launched. The future of the once-promising Telkom Media is in grave doubt.
So, it was a mixed record of predictions for the past year. For what it’s worth, here are my guesses for some of the key events that will shape 2009 in technology:
* Communications minister Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri will be succeeded by her deputy, Roy Padayachie, leading to improved relations with the private sector;
* A telecommunications operator, possibly Middle Eastern, will acquire a stake in Telkom, but government will insist on retaining a meaningful shareholding;
* Telkom will launch mobile 3G voice and data services that dramatically undercut the prices charged by MTN, Vodacom and Cell C. This, coupled with lower wholesale call termination rates imposed by industry regulator Icasa, will trigger a short-lived price war. Cell C will emerge 12 months from now with a slightly larger share of the market;
* Vox Telecom will be acquired, possibly by Altech, as consolidation kicks off among telecom service providers;
* MultiChoice will finally get a licence to launch digital broadcasting to cellphones, but the service will attract little interest;
* Microsoft will delay the introduction of Windows 7 until the second half of 2010 — the company has never released an operating system on time. It will also buy BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion to bolster its smartphone business. It will not buy Yahoo;
* Apple will launch a version of its iPhone with a slide-out Qwerty keyboard. It will go head-to-head with Nokia’s new N97 for market share, but the iPhone will win out in markets where both are available.
Even if only half of these guesses prove correct — you can’t be wrong all the time — 2009 will be an interesting year indeed.
Give your predictions for 2009
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