56 Exabytes of monthly traffic predicted
Cisco recently announced the results of the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013 which projects that global IP traffic will increase fivefold by 2013.
The Cisco VNI Forecast was developed to estimate global Internet Protocol traffic growth. Projections are based on Cisco analysis and modeling of independent analysts’ forecasts.
According to the Cisco VNI the economic downturn has only slightly tempered traffic growth. Global IP traffic is expected to increase fivefold from 2008 to 2013, approaching 56 exabytes per month in 2013, up from approximately 9 exabytes per month in 2008.
Cisco further predicts that by 2013, annual global IP traffic will reach two-thirds of a zettabyte (A zettabyte is a trillion gigabytes). Middle East and Africa will grow the fastest, with a compound annual growth rate of 51 percent, reaching 1 exabyte per month in 2013.
Mobile Broadband
Mobile data traffic will roughly double each year from 2008 to 2013, increasing 66 times between 2008 and 2013.
Almost 64 percent of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video in 2013. Mobile video is the fastest-growing application category measured within the Cisco VNI.
Impact of “Hyperconnectivity” on Networks
Consumer hyperconnectivity, which includes active digital multitasking and passive networking, increases the “digital day” as IP networks support more and more tasks and functions simultaneously from a host of networked devices like Televisions, PCs and mobile phones.
By 2013, active digital multitasking, such as listening to online music while working online or web browsing/instant messaging while talking on the phone, will add six “network hours” to each day
By 2013, passive networking, such DVR recording while watching other network programming, online storage backups conducted in the background of user experiences, or ambient video from such devices as a security or nanny-cam, will add another six “network hours” to each day
Today, there are 36 hours in a “network day.” There will be approximately 48 hours in a network day by 2013.
Global Impact of Video Networking on Screen Size
Digital screens of all types are proliferating along with other consumer devices. Not only is the number of networked devices multiplying, but the number of devices that have screens encourages more video consumption.
The larger screen sizes are also accelerating the demand for higher-resolution video, thereby increasing the IP traffic required for each stream.
By 2013 the surface area of the world’s digital screens will be nearly 1 billion square meters, or the equivalent of 2 billion large-screen TVs. Together, this amount would exceed the surface area of Manhattan. If laid end-to-end, these screens would circle the globe more than 48 times.
Future ICT growth discussion
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