ChromeOS a win for Microsoft?
Ever since Google announced its plans for ChromeOS, a branded version of Linux designed to be run mostly on Netbooks, there have been predictions that this could be the “Microsoft killer” so many are eager for. The truth is that Microsoft probably couldn’t be happier about such a move.
For one it creates the impression that there is vibrant competition in the operating system market which couldn’t be further from the truth and at the same time ChromeOS is unlikely to be a competitor to Microsoft. If anything ChromeOS is likely to do more damage to Linux than it is to Microsoft’s Windows operating system.
Competition
Microsoft has spent the best part of the past ten years in and out of courts defending itself against monopoly charges. Particularly in Europe the US-based software developer has had a torrid time and the impression that there is “real” competition in the operating system market will likely give Microsoft a little respite from the onslaught. It will also give Microsoft the opportunity to point its finger at Google and call for monopoly investigations.
In truth a Google-branded operating system is not going to be any great competition for Microsoft right now and certainly not for many years to come. It’s obvious if you look at the so-called battle for the desktop between Windows, Linux and OS X.
Despite their best efforts over the past decade or so, neither Linux nor Apple’s OS X have made any serious inroads into Windows’ market share. The idea that Google wakes up one morning and somehow produces a desktop operating system comparable with those produced over decades by Linux and Apple developers is nothing short of crazy.
Of course ChromeOS is going to be based on Linux which means Google is not starting from scratch, but it also serves to highlight how unlikely it is that ChromeOS will become a competitor anytime soon.
Loyalty
One of the many hard lessons Microsoft competitors have learned over the years is that not only is Microsoft extremely tough competition but, more importantly, users don’t change allegiance quickly.
In the year or so that Google’s Chrome browser has been on the market it has hardly enjoyed significant uptake. On the other hand there are millions of web users that still use Internet Explorer 6, a browser made back in 2001 and completely unsuited to today’s modern Web 2.0 world. So if users won’t readily switch to a new Microsoft browser what chance is there that they are likely to jump to a whole new operating system?
Google’s ChromeOS will also mostly be developed around the company’s web applications, things such as GMail and GoogleDocs. Having a lightweight operating system that relies on web-based applications is all well and good but most users are going to want more.
It’s a longstanding battle that Linux makers have faced, and continue to face. No matter how capable their operating system is, or how good it looks, the average user is going to want something they can’t have.
A good example is image editing. For a start an online application for image editing is just not as good as a desktop based one. And even if your desktop application is as good as, say, The Gimp on Linux, users are going to demand to be able to use Photoshop and they aren’t going to switch to something new very quickly.
Expertise
Almost every move by either Microsoft or Google has been characterised as a potential strategic move by one to overcome the other. Which is unfortunate because it obscures what is now becoming very apparent: each has its own strengths.
Google is great at developing web applications, be they for search or for office productivity. Microsoft on the other hand is good at developing desktop applications to maintain its dominant software position and even it struggles to break into Google’s domain. Microsoft has been trying for years to develop a competitor to Google’s search engine and even if its latest attempt, Bing, is closer than ever before it still has very little chance of breaking Google’s stranglehold on search and search advertising.
Users, again, are just not ready to switch.
Losers
If there is going to be a loser in this tussle for desktop operating systems it is unlikely to be Microsoft. And even Google will probably chalk it up to experience should it all come crashing down.
The one potential loser is Linux. Linux users tend to be users that are ready to experiment. To them ChromeOS is likely to be an attractive dalliance worth trying out. And for those that aren’t die-hard Linux fans the success of ChromeOS could still reflect on Linux.
If ChromeOS proves to be a stripped down, less-than-capable operating system the lasting impression for most users is going to be that Linux is just not good enough. Which would be portrayed as yet another failure for Linux and a win for Windows.
ChromeOS versus Microsoft – give your views
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