Is ADSL dying?
Market research firm Ovum recently reported that next-generation access (NGA) network upgrades led to “dramatic” growth in the FTTX and cable modem termination system (CMTS) markets during the first quarter of 2011.
According to Ovum, the number of PON (passive optical network) optical line terminal (OLT) ports for fiber to the home (FTTH) and building (FTTB) applications reached 988,889 in the first quarter of 2011. This represented an increase of 35 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 and 182 percent versus the same quarter a year ago.
Market research firm Infonetics Research also recently unveiled a report which highlights the shifts from copper to fiber. According to Infonetics Research the DSL market plunged while the PON market showed strong growth.
The end of DSL?
Many industry players predict that the strong growth in fibre broadband access networks may spell the end of copper based DSL.
Does the shift from copper based DSL services to fibre based access really spell the end of DSL globally? Not so, says DSL Prime’s Dave Burstein. “Both the reports note that DSL sales in the first quarter of 2011 were actually ahead of the same month last year.”
Burnstein added that less than 30% of the U.S. is likely to be served by fiber this decade, and said that Europe’s figure is similar. “There’s little reason to expect much change next decade, as wireless gets increasingly central.”
“Deutsche Telekom, British Telecom, AT&T, Bell Canada, Century/Qwest and many other carriers have made clear they will use DSL, not fiber, for the majority of lines because it’s cheaper. Increasingly, that’s DSL from a neighborhood DSLAM (FTTN) with short loops that will soon be capable of 100 megabits through bonding and vectoring,” said Burnstein.
South Africa
Apart from a few gated communities served by FTTH, copper based ADSL access is still the only fixed line broadband service in South Africa.
While a few FTTH initiatives have surfaced over the last year it is unlikely that local consumers will see FTTH offerings in the near future.
Copper based ADSL is therefore alive and well in South Africa, and with initiatives from Telkom to shorten the local loop and upgrade ADSL speeds it is likely that South Africans will use DSL for many years to come.
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