Broadband’s second wave
The top 10 broadband countries in the world have added over 9.3 million broadband lines in the 3 months to September 2009, representing an increase of 2.95% in the quarter. The remainder of the world grew by over 3.7% in the same period.
“Top 10 growth has picked up since the second quarter of 2009, which could represent the low point for world broadband adds. China is looking stronger, the US is gradually building again and a generally healthier picture is emerging,” says Oliver Johnson, CEO at Point Topic.
The top 10 does have its strugglers however.
Japan and South Korea are bumping against their population ceilings and churn to broadband technologies other than DSL will continue to be the major issue there.
“A bigger story is in Canada where the statistics paint a picture of steady recovery but it won’t be enough to keep them in the top 10. By our estimates they will be replaced in the rankings by Russia in the last quarter of 2009 and there’s a possibility of falling behind Spain as well,” says Johnson.
The second wave of broadband growth – DSL leads the way
Growth in Russia is being led by DSL subscriptions and that has been the case in the other top performers worldwide.
“DSL is the cheapest broadband option in every market around the world in monthly subscription and usually deployment terms. That’s significant for growth in countries where average incomes won’t stretch to super fast access,” says Johnson.
In the third quarter of 2009 DSL was responsible for almost 70% of the net broadband adds in the world and took market share from the other two major technologies (cable and fibre).
“None of the large, rapidly growing, countries has a broadband population penetration over 10% and DSL is increasing its dominance in all of them. The second wave of broadband growth is going to really kick in during 2010 and it’s going to be driven by low cost access,” says Johnson.
Broadband’s second wave – give your views
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