Surprise in Showmax and Netflix subscriber battle

MultiChoice’s Showmax recorded significant subscriber growth in the past six months, suggesting the video streaming service has extended its lead over Netflix in Africa and potentially surpassed the US giant’s subscribers in South Africa.
According to MultiChoice’s interim results ended September 2024, Showmax increased its subscriber base by 50% from a year ago.
That is despite discontinuing certain products like Showmax Pro and its services in countries outside Africa.
Although the company has not shared actual subscriber numbers, several market research firms have estimated its subscriber count.
Last year, research by Omdia found that Showmax had already passed Netflix to become the top video streaming service in Africa.
As of November 2024, it estimated that Showmax had 2.1 million African subscribers compared to Netflix’s 1.8 million.
If Omdia’s estimates are correct, then Showmax could have increased its subscriber base by roughly 1.05 million in 2024.
Netflix added roughly 22.4 million new subscribers globally in 2024, significantly more than Showmax.
However, Showmax is now only available in Africa, and the African continent is Netflix’s smallest market.
The Omdia-estimated 1.8 million subscribers in the region made up just 0.7% % of Netflix’s total base of 260.3 million in 2024.
Assuming this proportion had remained the same with the global increase, new subscribers in Africa would only have grown by about 156,800.
However, according to Digital TV Research, Netflix’s sheer scale gave it an advantage in South Africa. At the end of 2023, it had roughly 1.2 million subscribers compared to Showmax’s 937,000.
Based on Omdia’s estimates, 66.7% of Netflix’s African subscribers are in South Africa compared with 44.6% of Showmax users.
If 66.7% of Netflix’s new African subscribers are in South Africa, they would have accounted for around 100,000 of the 156,800 increase on the continent.
If the proportion of South African Showmax subscribers also remained the same, they would have made up roughly 468,300 of the South African service’s new subscribers since September 2024.
That means that Showmax could have around 1.4 million subscribers in South Africa, surpassing Netflix’s 1.3 million.
The table below summarises the above estimates.
Netflix | Showmax | |
---|---|---|
Estimated African subscribers by end 2023 (Omdia) | 1.8 million | 2.1 million |
Estimated South African subscribers by end 2023 (Digital TV Research) | 1.2 million | 937,000 |
South African subscribers as proportion of total African base in 2023 | 66.7% | 44.6% |
Estimated increase in African subscribers in 2024 | +156,800 | +1.05 million |
Total in Africa as of September 2024 | 1.97 million | 3.15 million |
South African subscribers as proportion of total African base at end of 2023 | 1.30 million | 1.40 million |
Big investment showing early promise?
It should be emphasised that the calculations above are estimates.
Neither company provides specific subscriber numbers for the countries where they operate, so it is impossible to know whether there has indeed been a shift in favour of the South African service.
Netflix has also said it will stop reporting subscriber numbers entirely from next year and instead focus on revenue and operating margin.
What is evident is that MultiChoice is betting big that Showmax can be Africa’s first true streaming giant.
The company has invested over R3.47 billion into Showmax 2.0 since its previous financial year.
The service was launched in partnership with Comcast’s NBCUniversal in February 2024.
The US media giant holds a 30% stake in the joint venture, while MultiChoice has a 70% share, with funding provided in proportion to their stakes.
As part of the deal, the new Showmax was migrated to run on NBCUniversal’s Peacock platform for enhanced performance and features.
The investment appears to have given Showmax some momentum, with subscriber growth of 30% in the seven months since launch.
While the Showmax investment is putting pressure on MultiChoice’s financial results in the short term, the entertainment giant contends it could produce $1 billion (R18.2 billion) in revenue by 2028.
In its interim results, MultiChoice said the Showmax team’s focus in the current financial year has shifted to bedding down distribution partnerships, increasing payment channel integrations, and refining its go-to-market strategy against the long-term business plan.
Flexing its hyper-local muscles
Showmax’s edge over Netflix is in local productions that resonate with African audiences, including true crime documentaries and reality TV shows.
The service produced 39 new originals in the first half of its 2025 financial year, over double the 19 it made in the first half of FY 2024.
Its productions earned it 142 South African Film and Television Award nominations at the 2024 edition of the awards, of which 37 won in their respective categories.
Thanks to its parent company MultiChoice’s content licencing deals, it also offers sought-after international movies and TV shows, with HBO’s strong line-up of high-quality content being particularly attractive.
In addition, MultiChoice’s rights to the English Premier League (EPL) have enabled the company to offer a highly affordable Showmax mobile-only subscription with live coverage of all matches.
Despite being based outside the continent, the EPL is one of the most watched sports tournaments in Africa.
Showmax has also launched key partnerships with the following companies and services, helping to drive uptake of its service:
- Qvwi — Showmax-branded packaging for Qvwi streaming box and sticks with two months’ free subscriptions.
- Capitec — Offering 50% discounts on Showmax vouchers through the bank’s app.
- M-Pesa — Support added to use the highly popular mobile wallet payment solution as a payment method for customers in several African countries.