Can Windows Phone 7 challenge Android?
A lot has been written about Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 since it’s official launch earlier this month. Most commentators are split down the middle: those that think Windows Phone 7 is the iPhone challenger users have been waiting for, and those that think that Windows Phone 7 is simply too late.
I’ll say it up front: I’m in the latter camp.
I know that Windows has market dominance. I know that Microsoft has the financial and legal muscle to ensure this dominance for some time to come. I’m even willing to say that Windows Phone 7 looks like a great platform. But I’m not convinced that Windows Phone 7 isn’t simply too late to make any real impact on the market.
Things have changed over the past two years, a period in which Microsoft has been largely dormant on the mobile front. Having said that it’s worth looking at both sides of the equation.
Strengths
Windows Phone 7 has a number of strengths. Naturally Windows’ market dominance and Microsoft’s name are right up there, although with a caveat that I mention below.
Windows Phone 7 promises to bring all of Microsoft’s major focus areas – Xbox Live, Zune and productivity tools – together which for users in that environment is pretty compelling. Very compelling.
Windows Phone 7 also re-invents Windows’ mobile interface. It’s an important, even a brave, move by Microsoft but a necessary one. It says Microsoft is committed to mobile and willing to go the extra mile to challenge the likes of Android and iOS. Nokia, for example, could well take a lesson from this. Windows Phone 7’s interface is one of the only alternatives, alongside Android, that is a patch on what Apple is doing with the iPhone.
Windows Mobile is also big in enterprise. With Windows Phone 7 integrating with Office and Sharepoint many businesses that are relying on Blackberry now will certainly be looking at Windows Phone 7 as a way of simplifying their environment over the next couple of years. In fact, despite all the talk it’s probably in the enterprise market that Windows Phone 7 is likely to get the most traction.
Weaknesses
I said there was a caveat to Microsoft’s market dominance and this is it: I don’t honestly believe that most consumers choose to buy a Windows-based phone over an iPhone or Symbian-based one. It’s not like buying a desktop or laptop PC, where one of the first questions asked is whether the machine runs Windows.
Mobile users buy based on other criteria – the cool factor, features, emotional buy-in. So strength in the PC market doesn’t necessarily translate into strength in the mobile market for Microsoft.
The other obvious weakness for Windows is that developers have already chosen their platform. The iPhone marketplace has in excess of 300 000 applications already and the Android marketplace is nearing the 100 000 mark. That’s a pretty big headstart for Microsoft’s competitors.
Add to that the fact that Android-based phones and the iPhone are not all that different, despite being different platforms. Windows Phone 7, on the other hand, is a whole new beast. Porting applications across all three platforms could be a hurdle too far for many developers.
Microsoft’s other big challenge is going to be getting the right vehicles to push Windows Phone 7 into the market. Right now there aren’t a lot of hardware makers lining up to ship Windows 7 Phones. Part of the blame for that has to be laid at Microsoft’s door. They’ve been promising to deliver a Windows 6.x successor for so long now that most mobile phone makers have all but given up waiting. HTC is just one example. Two years ago the majority of HTC phones shipped were Windows Mobile ones. Now? Mostly Android. And possibly even Google Chrome OS tablets in the near future.
Where we stand
Naturally only time will tell if Microsoft has the right product for the market. I think Windows Phone 7 is positioned well in that it is meant to be more customisable than the iPhone but less fragmented than Android. There might well be a space in the market for something in between Android and iPhone, but not much room.
Android certainly risks suffering from its extreme fragmentation – hundreds of versions for multiple handsets – but I do think that these risks can be, and have been, overstated in many cases.
And, of course, there is Blackberry – as always a tough competitor. I don’t think things are going to get any easier for Blackberry in the coming year or two but RIM shouldn’t be written off yet.
To make Windows Phone 7 work Microsoft needs partners with great phones that appeal to users. Without those it won’t get enough phones into the hands of users and Windows Phone 7 will always be an also-ran.
Can Windows Phone 7 challenge Android? << Comments and views
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