Does BlackBerry have a future?
It’s easy to write off BlackBerry. Technology journalists and bloggers in the US have made a hobby of it, with their limited understanding of where the device-maker remains the market leader.
Only now, with its new platform and struggle to remain relevant, are they interested in excruciating detail contained in quarterly earnings reports. Most are downright surprised that the company continues to lead in countries like Indonesia, Nigeria, Columbia, Mexico and South Africa.
There are over 6m BlackBerrys in this country. It’s by far the most popular smartphone platform. (By contrast, there are fewer than 2m Android phones, and less than 1m iPhones.)
Critics will say (simplistically) that as the all-you-can-eat BlackBerry Internet Service (BIS) is replaced by plans with limited bundled data and strict fair-usage policies, the appeal of BlackBerry is gone. They’re half right.
Clay Chirstensen’s jobs-to-be-done theory is useful when trying to analyse why people are (were?) attracted to the BlackBerry platform in the first place. We “hire” devices to do specific jobs for us. BlackBerry = always-on e-mail. It’s that simple. No other device comes close.
In (mostly) emerging markets, BlackBerry has relied on the appeal of always-on, flat-rated internet, e-mail and messaging (BBM). That’s the job to be done and there’s nothing wrong with that. Not everyone can afford an iPhone. Or a Samsung Galaxy SIII (/4).
Those markets aren’t going to change overnight.
And, the world is bigger than just the US (and western Europe).
This is what BlackBerry’s relying on.
It needs to keep innovating on its older BlackBerry 7 operating system. It desperately needs new devices in that category too. There’s a strong similarity to what Nokia is doing with its entry-level Asha not-quite-but-almost-smartphones. It cannot ignore that market. Everyone points to cheap Android devices. Sure, at the sub $100 (R1 000) price point, they’re appealing. But there’s no properly curated app ecosystem to speak of. Why would you choose one of those devices if very appealing alternatives exist?
But obviously it’s going to work hard to convert as many of its higher-end users to its new BlackBerry 10 platform as possible. Even with only the Z10 on the market right now, that’s not impossible. There are people who will actively choose BlackBerry when given a choice. In terms of pricing, there’s not much between the iPhone, Galaxy, (high-end Nokia) Lumia and the Z10. We keep being told the difference is in the eco-system, and to a certain extent that’s true too.
A platform has no chance if popular apps aren’t available. Right now, everyone’s lamenting the fact that Instagram and Netflix aren’t available for BlackBerry 10. Maybe they have a point with Instagram (at the high end), but outside the US, no one really cares about Netflix.
There are a few must-have apps for any ecosystem: Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, Angry Birds. It’s that simple. And any ecosystem needs a strong catalogue of local apps (think obvious ones like News24, DStv, FNB).
Everything over and above that is a bonus.
This means BlackBerry 10 has a fighting shot. It’s not going to beat Android or iOS, but who said that consumers only want the choice between two platforms? Do most average consumers care? The key is to remain big enough to still be relevant.
There are little things that delight in the new BlackBerry platform. Tiny details (many covered here). But that’s true of any operating system.
The signs so far are encouraging. It shipped a million Z10 devices in the fourth quarter to March 2 (those are shipments to operators – not sales, but the majority of these devices have been sold through). It’s also worth remembering that up until the end of February, the Z10 had only been available in two markets (the UK and Canada), and only for four weeks.
The real test comes in this current quarter. It needs to ship a good deal more than a million phones. And a lot is riding on the launch of the Q10 (with a QWERTY keyboard and touchscreen) in May. Anecdotal evidence suggests there are tons of hardcore users passing on the Z10 and waiting for this instead.
BlackBerry isn’t going anywhere. Not yet, anyway. Its 76m users worldwide aren’t going to drop to zero. But it needs to make sure that number doesn’t evaporate as quickly as Nokia’s share of the global smartphone market did (when it transitioned to Windows Phone). At the very least it needs to start holding that base steady (it fell from 78m as of November).
Is it conceivable that we might see strong emerging market platforms alongside the Android and iOS goliaths?
Does a platform have to be popular in the US, which is only now having its moment in the sun as the global mobile market leader (following periods where Japan/Korea and then Europe were leaders), to be ‘successful’?
Those are the two million dollar questions.
Source: Does BlackBerry have a future?
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