South Africa must build 53GW in ten years — but couldn’t add 9GW in fifteen

Eskom says South Africa must add 53GW of renewable electricity generation capacity to the grid over the next ten years to ensure the country’s energy security.
However, the power utility has struggled for the past 15 years to bring 9.6GW of coal-fired generating capacity at Medupi and Kusile on stream.
During the Transmission Development Plan (TDP) public forum on Thursday, 27 October, Eskom said the 53GW of generation capacity is required to ensure energy security in South Africa.
“This 53GW new additional power includes the current deficit of between 4,000MW and 6,000MW,” Eskom said.
It’s not just generation capacity that will need to be built over the next ten years. Eskom will also have to expand its transmission infrastructure with around 14,200km of extra-high voltage lines and 170 transformers.
“Accommodating this increased generation capacity means that a reliable and adequate transmission system is required to integrate and dispatch this new capacity to the load centres across the country,” Eskom said.
The power utility noted that the plan is a significant revision of that outlined in the TDP for 2021, which was based on the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 and proposed 30GW of new capacity by 2030.
Eskom said it is focused on implementing renewable energy projects over the next five years.
“Given the uncertainty in the longer term, and noting that the Integrated Resources Plan, as a policy document, is currently being updated, Eskom is placing a strong focus on the implementation of projects over the next five years,” it said.
The power utility’s transmission expansion will require a capital investment of R72.2 billion by FY2027 to roll out 2,890km of extra-high voltage lines and 60 transformers.
“This requires that some challenges beyond Eskom’s full control, such as the lead time to obtain servitudes, among other relevant authorisations, as well as the resource capacity in the country, be urgently addressed,” it added.
Eskom’s managing director for transmission Segomoco Scheppers provided a breakdown of how the power utility will spend the R72.2 billion required for its transmission expansion.
“Of this amount, R50.8 billion is required for new capacity expansion projects to meet the reliability requirements, the connection of new generation capacity and loads, as well as to acquire servitudes,” he said.
“A further R21.4 billion is required to refurbish the existing asset base and procurement of production equipment.”
Energy analyst Chris Yelland explains that Eskom’s plan for the next 10 years assumes no new coal-fired power, no new nuclear power, and an energy availability factor of between 65% to 72% as poorly performing coal-fired power stations are decommissioned.
Yelland said that by 2032, the TDP2022 prescribes an installed base of 97.4GW, with the following energy mix:
- 27.9GW coal — down from 39.4GW now
- 26.3GW wind
- 18.3GW solar PV
- 8.4 GW open-cycle gas turbines (diesel-powered)
- 6.55GW batteries
- 4GW imported hydro
- 2.5GW pumped water storage
- 1.86GW nuclear
“This Eskom Transmission Development Plan for the 10-year period to 2032 is, therefore, a major departure from and update of the basis, assumptions and outcomes embodied in the outdated Integrated Resource Plan for electricity IRP 2019,” Yelland states.
South Africa failed to add 9.6GW in 15 years
The announcement that South Africa must add 53GW by 2032 comes despite Eskom’s failure to complete the Medupi and Kusile power stations in 15 years.
When eventually completed, the power stations will provide 4.8GW of generation capacity to the country’s power grid.
However, 15 years down the line, the power stations still aren’t fully operational, and Eskom recently revealed that it would cost around R33 billion more and take another four years to complete the power stations.
Construction of the power stations began in 2007, and both were initially supposed to be completed by 2014.
However, Eskom’s latest timelines show that only one of the power stations will be ready a decade later than initially planned.
The power utility said it was planning to reach full project completion at Medupi in November 2023.
However, the return to service of Medupi Unit 4, which suffered an explosion just over a week after it reached commercial operation, is now only scheduled for September 2024.
Kusile has been even more expensive and is now only set for completion by May 2026 instead of 2025, as previously planned. That is assuming there are no further delays.