Eskom warns of prolonged load-shedding for the next year

Eskom has warned South Africans to expect prolonged load-shedding over the next six to 12 months as the power utility undertakes major capital projects and repairs that will reduce available generation capacity.

During its latest state of the system briefing on Tuesday, the company said the projects and repairs would remove more than 2,300MW of generating capacity from the system.

For reference, that capacity is 300MW more than the amount of energy shed during stage 2 load-shedding.

“Starting over the next few weeks, Eskom will embark on some major capital investment projects and major repairs that carry significant risk and that will serve to further increase the implementation of load-shedding,” it said in a statement.

“Eskom cautions the public to anticipate the increased risk of load-shedding until these problems are resolved over the next six to 12 months.”

The power utility said high levels of unplanned outages meant it had to rely heavily on the extensive use of open-cycle gas turbines, burning millions of litres of diesel in the process.

Notably, Eskom’s chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer said this was causing cash flow constraints, with the utility spending heavily on diesel while several municipalities and government entities are still in debt with Eskom.

Oberholzer also said the risk of continued load-shedding would remain high for the next few months.

“Due to the vulnerability and unpredictability of the power system, coupled with the major capital projects, maintenance and major repairs to be executed starting during the next few months, the risk of continued load-shedding remains quite high,” he said.

Eskom said the collapse of the flue-gas duct leading out of Kusile power station’s Unit 1 has dealt a severe blow to the utility’s efforts to improve the generation capacity.

The collapse has not only meant Unit 1 needed to be shut down, but has also delayed the return to service of Unit 2 and Unit 3 as a precaution.

“This loss of the Kusile units has added additional strain to an already constrained generation system. Unit 4 is the only one currently on load at Kusile,” Eskom said.

Eskom said it is still establishing the extent of the damage to Kusile’s duct system, but Oberholzer revealed that current estimates showed it would take no less than six months to fix.

“The extent of the damage to the Kusile duct system will be established over the next few weeks as investigations into the structural failure pick up speed,” Eskom said.

“The investigations into the duct failure will also establish whether there is any risk to Unit 3 of Kusile, whose chimney is also housed in the same stack as the other two units.”

The power utility will then decide whether to return Kusile Unit 3 to service.

Eskom also plans to take the Koeberg nuclear power station’s Unit 1 offline for routine maintenance, refuelling, and the replacement of its steam generators from December 2022.

It is expected to return to service in June 2023, barring any delays like those suffered by Koeberg Unit 2 in the past year.

“This will remove 920MW of generation capacity from the national grid during this time,” Eskom added.

Eskom added Koeberg Unit 2 had been operating for 51 days after Eskom was forced to shut it down to remedy a control rod slippage issue.

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