Eskom announces stage 6 until further notice
Eskom has announced continuous stage 6 load-shedding after a generating unit broke down at Medupi power station.
This comes after the state-owned power utility steadily increased the intensity of power cuts yesterday.
Assuming the generating unit was running near maximum capacity and there were no other changes in Eskom’s fleet, its outages are now around 23,379 MW.
Breakdowns should be close to 17,572 MW, and the capacity offline for maintenance 5,807 MW.
Eskom’s latest weekly system status report shows it expects a minimum of stage 3 load-shedding for the rest of April and all of May.
This is under the utility’s “planned” and “likely” risk scenarios, which assume shortfalls of 17,200 MW or 18,700 MW, respectively.
Although scheduled outages are below the planned 6,585 MW this week, breakdowns far exceed the 15,000 MW forecast.
Current outages are over 4,600 MW greater than Eskom’s “likely” scenario.
Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa warned last week that Eskom expects a generation gap of 8,000 MW to 10,000 MW this winter.
Essentially, if Eskom can’t improve its generation capacity, South Africa could be plunged into stage 8 to stage 10 load-shedding as the weather grows colder and electricity demand increases.
Several experts raised the alarm earlier this year to brace for higher stages of load-shedding.
Hohm Energy’s Matthew Cruise said in February there is a relatively high risk of stage 8 load-shedding, and potentially higher stages, from July 2023.
Cruise said there was a 50% chance that Eskom would have to implement stage 8 load-shedding as the country moves into its winter peak.
Although the existing load-shedding schedules only go up to stage 8, these are being revised.
Eskom acting head of generation Thomas Conradie said earlier this year that a workgroup comprising Eskom, its System Operator, and industry stakeholders is revising the code of practice governing South Africa’s load-shedding stages.
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