Eskom CEO’s Stage 8 load-shedding warning
Eskom says it is focused on keeping its unplanned generation capacity loss factor below 15,000MW to keep load-shedding to a minimum this winter.
Acting CEO Calib Cassim warned there is an “extremely high” chance of Stage 8 load-shedding during the evening peaks if Eskom’s interventions aren’t sufficient.
His warning came during Eskom’s State of the System media briefing on Thursday, 18 May 2023, where he explained that this would be the outcome if unplanned losses reach 18,000MW or higher.
“The focus during this winter, first and foremost, must be the performance of the generation fleet, around energy availability factor, and in presenting this winter plan … we’re really focused on the key objective to keep our unplanned loss factor under 15,000MW,” said Cassim.
“However, we know it’s been a struggle to keep it at this level, and in maintaining this level of 15,000MW, that then corresponds to much lower levels of load-shedding during morning peaks, during the day, and evening peaks.”
“If the interventions that we have planned do not achieve the desired outcomes, and unplanned outages reach levels of 18,000MW, then the likelihood of Stage 8 load-shedding during peaks is extremely high,” he added.
According to Eskom’s unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) and operational capacity loss factor (OCLF) data for April and May, this could prove challenging.
The power utility breaks down combined UCLF and OCLF figures into three categories — minimum, average, and maximum — and has been between 15,400MW and 18,300MW, on average, since early April.
We have plotted Eskom’s UCLF and OCLF figures from the week starting 2 April 2023 to the week starting 14 May in the chart below.
Eskom unplanned capacity losses: 9 April to 14 May 2023. Loss factor = combined UCLF and OCLF figures.
The maximum loss factor figures could be cause for concern.
It has exceeded the 18,000MW threshold in five of the past seven weeks, with maximum unplanned losses reaching as high as 19,910MW in early May.
However, it dropped significantly from 19,910MW for the week starting 7 May 2023 to 18,336MW in the week starting 14 May 2023.
If this downward trend continues, higher stages of load-shedding may not be required this winter.
Despite Eskom’s planned interventions, Cassim said this winter will still be challenging.
“We are going into this winter with 3,000MW less capacity during the last winter,” he said.
He explained that this shortfall comprises three offline generation units at Kusile Power Station and one at Koeberg Power Station.
Eskom’s game plan this winter consists of the following:
- Reduce breakdowns — this involves addressing load losses at priority power stations and returning several units to service.
- Manage planned maintenance — Eskom plans to keep maintenance capacity losses between 1,300MW and 3,000MW.
- Increase open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) usage — run OCGTs to achieve a 20% load factor this winter.
- Reduce demand — fast-track demand-side initiatives to reduce demand on the grid, including appealing to the South African public to use less power.
Cassim also addressed concerns over a potential grid collapse, which he said is unlikely.
“In terms of a national blackout, we are confident that that will not occur because of the interventions and control mechanisms that we have in place,” said Cassim.
“Load-shedding is necessary to keep control of the transmission grid, and that is why the choice of the levels of load-shedding is executed.”
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