Code red at Eskom in 2024

South Africa experienced its worst year of load-shedding ever in 2023, and the outlook for 2024 ahead is bleak, with Eskom anticipating that it will be at least 2,001MW short to meet demand and reserves for the next 52 weeks.

This is according to the power utility’s latest Generation Adequacy Report — the last for 2023 — which breaks down the risk of load-shedding into “likely” and “planned” risk scenarios.

Eskom has assumed base unplanned outages amounting to 16,000MW for the duration of the year ahead, with the “planned” and “likely” risk scenarios adding additional breakdowns to this figure.

The outlook covers the 52 weeks from 1 January 2024 to 6 January 2025.

“The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level),” Eskom explains in the report.

“As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This ‘likely risk scenario’ includes an additional 1,500 MW of outages on the base plan.”

Both the “planned” and “likely” risk scenarios anticipate that Eskom will be short at least 2,001MW to meet demand and reserves throughout the year.

Therefore, South Africans can expect a minimum of regular stage 2 load-shedding throughout the year. However, this depends on which other demand-side initiatives the power utility is running.

Many will likely find it concerning that despite last year being the country’s worst year for load-shedding yet, Eskom’s Generation Adequacy Report for 2023 showed that it anticipated only two weeks during which it would face a shortfall of 2,001MW or higher during the period.

Eskom’s 52-week outlook for 1 January 2024 to 6 January 2025 is shown below.

The end is in sight, but it’s at least four years away

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) published the proposed revision of its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for public comment on 4 January 2024.

Energy policy and investment advisor Professor Anton Eberhard says the document is an admission of the department’s failure to address the energy crisis.

The document shows that South Africans should expect extensive load-shedding for at least the next four years.

However, the DRME’s failures go deeper. Eberhard also said the document failed to fulfil its purpose of guaranteeing electricity security while minimising environmental impacts and the cost of supply.

“It advocates delaying the closure of old coal power stations, working around minimum emission standards, and provides dodgy conclusions on a least-cost power system without detailing its input assumptions,” he said.

Managing director of EE Business Intelligence, Chris Yelland, described the revised document as “shoddy” and lacking “maturity and depth”.

“South Africa has a wealth of power system modelling competencies which have clearly been ignored in the preparation of this draft IRP,” he added.

“How this work was approved by the Cabinet for commencement of the public and stakeholder consultation process is beyond me.”

The draft plan outlines the electricity capacity expected to be added to the grid between 2024 and 2030. It also considers several scenarios for building or procuring additional power between 2031 and 2050.

It shows that the plans underway to end load-shedding will only bear fruit in another four years as more gas, solar, wind, and battery storage capacity is added to the grid.

Looking at the short term, the draft IRP highlights several crucial milestones for procuring additional power:

• A 1,000MW independent gas power plant is set to come online in 2027.
• A 2,000MW battery storage system is set to go live in 2027.
• An additional 4,000MW of gas power will be added to the grid in 2028.