Ramokgopa dodges questions about ending load-shedding by 2024

Electricity minister Kgoseintsho Ramokgopa says Eskom is working to end load-shedding sooner than forecast in the proposed update of South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

During a media briefing to update the public on the energy action plan on Tuesday, 9 January 2024, the minister explained that the IRP takes a conservative view when it comes to ending rotational power cuts in South Africa.

Responding to a question asking why the IRP is out of sync with what the National Energy Crisis Committee has said and what senior ANC politicians had promised, Ramokgopa said the document errs on the side of caution.

“They generate a number of scenarios. So, there’s an optimistic case, and then there’s a pessimistic case,” he said. “They take a conservative view and err on the side of conservatism.”

“By that, we mean that they take the view that load-shedding can only be ended in 2027.”

“They do admit that there are these interventions being made and these interventions are yielding fruit,” Ramokgopa added.

He explained that despite the predictions set out in the document, load-shedding could be a thing of the past sooner than anticipated.

“We have been fashioning what we think are the most plausible solutions to help us make interventions quicker,” said Ramokgopa.

“I think what was missing there was our ability to coordinate those interventions with Eskom because Eskom is an indispensable player in the execution of those proposals.”

“The work that we are doing is to end it [load-shedding] sooner than what is articulated in both those scenarios [outlined in the IRP],” the minister added.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy published the latest revision to the IRP for public comment on 4 January 2024.

Senior ANC politicians, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, promised that load-shedding would end by 2024.

The document shows that South Africans should expect extensive load-shedding for at least the next four years. It also highlights key dates for electricity capacity expansion from 2024 to 2030 and considers several scenarios for building or procuring additional power between 2031 and 2050.

The prediction that load-shedding will persist until 2027 goes against what Ramokgopa and other senior ANC officials had promised.

In October 2023, Ramokgopa said load-shedding would reduce significantly over the following months and end in 2024, adding that the load-shedding outlook for the year ahead was positive.

More recently, he indicated that load-shedding will be a thing of the past within a year.

“A year is too long. If we meet next year, we should be happy,” the minister said.

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s promises were more ambitious. Last year, he said load-shedding would be over by the end of 2023.

“Load-shedding, before the end of the year, should be something of the past,” he said in an interview with eNCA.

The President also made ambitious promises about ending load-shedding in South Africa before 2024.

In May last year, Cyril Ramaphosa promised South Africans that the end of load-shedding would soon be in sight before doubling down on his promise a few months later.

“Energy has been a great drawback to us, but we are working on it, and we are certain that by 2024, the energy crisis will be over,” Ramaphosa said.

Eskom fleet to unpredictable

Despite Eskom’s Generation Adequacy Report painting a bleak picture for load-shedding over the next year, Ramokgopa said it isn’t possible to make accurate predictions for load-shedding this year.

He says this is because Eskom’s power stations are too unreliable, meaning he cannot say whether load-shedding will end this year.

“We have no control of some of these units, they are extremely unreliable,” Ramokgopa said.

Ramokgopa said South Africans could expect some days with load-shedding, and some without.

However, Eskom’s outlook predicts South Africans will experience regular load-shedding of at least stage 2 throughout the year.

The outlook breaks down the risk of load-shedding into “likely” and “planned” risk scenarios for the 52 weeks between 1 January 2023 and 6 January 2025.

Both the “planned” and “likely” risk scenarios anticipate that Eskom will be short at least 2,001MW to meet demand and reserves for the period.

Therefore, South Africans should expect a minimum of regular stage 2 load-shedding. However, this depends on which other demand-side initiatives the power utility is running.