South Africa launches programme to build new nuclear power plants

Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has issued a determination in the Government Gazette that will see South Africa procure 2,500MW of nuclear power.

According to the document, this capacity will be built by Eskom, any other organ of state, or in partnership with any other juristic person.

“The buyer of the electricity will be Eskom or any entity determined through Eskom’s unbundling process as the future buyer of electricity,” it stated.

Similarly, the designated procuring agency for the nuclear new build programme will be the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), any other organ of state, or a partnership with any other juristic person.

“The procurer designated above will be responsible for determining the procurement process which will be established through a tendering procedure which is fair, equitable, transparent, competitive and cost-effective.”

Ramokgopa gazetted the determination in terms of South Africa’s old Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), published in 2019, even as the DMRE is working on an updated version.

The proposed IRP 2023 makes provision for 2,500MW of new nuclear power potentially coming online between 2031 and 2035.

However, this is one of several possible “pathways” the draft document suggests South Africa could take to get out of its electricity crisis.

The DMRE’s proposed update to the IRP has been panned by several energy analysts, who said the department’s cost calculations of various energy options were opaque and not credible.

In essence, the department asserted that building renewables would cost South Africa more in the long term than keeping its senescent coal power stations running, building lots of gas-to-power, or adding nuclear into the mix.

Energy policy and investment specialist Professor Anton Eberhard called the proposed IRP 2023 an admission of failure by energy minister Gwede Mantashe.

He also said it was “brimming with wishful thinking”.

Based on the forecasts in the IRP 2023, South Africa can expect at least another four years of load-shedding.

This was the admission of failure to solve South Africa’s energy crisis and end load-shedding that Eberhard referred to.

Eberhard added that the document failed to fulfil its stated purpose of ensuring electricity security while minimising environmental impacts and the cost of supply.

“SA’s IRP 2023 is a stitch-up with pre-determined outcomes, in line with what the energy minister has been advocating — wishful thinking around improvements in Eskom power station performance, delays in coal decommissioning, ‘clean’ coal, nuclear energy, and lots of gas,” Eberhard said.

EE Business Intelligence managing director Chris Yelland said South Africa could end load-shedding in two years — half the time envisioned by the draft IRP.

“I think the role of rooftop solar PV and battery energy storage is grossly underestimated,” Yelland told MyBroadband in an interview.

The draft IRP envisions that about 900MW of rooftop solar will be added in South Africa every year between 2024 and 2030.

“It could be three or four times that amount if we really pushed it,” Yelland said.

“Many other countries at the same level or even a lower level of development in South Africa are doing much more than 900MW a year in rooftop solar in the domestic, commercial, and agricultural sectors.

“We could deploy at least 2,000MW a year,” Yelland said. “In fact, it is already much higher than 900MW a year.”

Yelland’s assertion is supported by the record-breaking solar panel imports in 2023.

According to a senior economist at Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies, Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, South Africa had around 5,200MW (5.2GW) of private solar capacity by the end of 2023.

That is double the private solar capacity compared to a year earlier.

Private individuals and businesses installed more PV solar generation than Eskom has connected to its grid through independent power producers in about a decade.

The DMRE’s draft IRP 2023 is open for public comment until 23 February 2024.