André de Ruyter behind lower load-shedding — economist

Economist Roelof Botha argues that the current load-shedding respite is a result of André de Ruyter’s work at Eskom.

South Africa has experienced a load-shedding-free April, which continued at the beginning of May.

There are many theories about the uninterrupted power supply, which include that it is an election ploy by the ruling party and that Eskom is burning more diesel.

Botha dismissed these theories, saying Eskom’s improved performance was due to better maintenance implemented under André de Ruyter.

He told Nuuspod that De Ruyter’s plans to do preventative maintenance to avoid unplanned breakdowns are coming to fruition.

He referred to De Ruyter comprehensive maintenance plan, which included general overhauls and midlife overhauls of its ageing coal-powered fleet.

In 2020, shortly after becoming Eskom CEO, De Ruyter described his plans as “short-term pain for long-term gain”.

He promised South Africa that load-shedding would be significantly lower from September 2021. However, what followed was a rapid increase in power cuts.

South Africa experienced the worst load-shedding in history between September 2021 and De Ruyter’s departure in February 2023.

He said he was disappointed they could not make a dent in this unreliable system for more planned maintenance.

“A lot of the planned maintenance that was carried out did not meet our expectations regarding what was done,” he said.

Despite the increased load-shedding under De Ruyter, Botha said the strategy executed under his leadership is to thank for the current load-shedding-free period.

“The government would not admit it, but the origin of the uninterrupted power supply lies with André de Ruyter’s management ability and maintenance plans,” he said.

“At least they had the wisdom to continue down the maintenance road which started under De Ruyter.”

Economist Roelof Botha

Expert view on lower load-shedding

Data from Eskom and EE Business Intelligence shows that lower maintenance and more solar power are behind the decline in load-shedding.

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati confirmed that Eskom’s maintenance strategy, where it took specific generation units offline to fix, is starting to produce results.

While improved maintenance is part of the story, it does not fully explain why South Africans enjoyed a blackout-free April.

Energy analyst Chris Yelland said unplanned breakdowns were consistently lower in the first 16 weeks of 2024 than in the same period last year.

However, it is mainly due to the return to service of 3 x 800 MW units at the Kusile Power Station, which provided 2,100 MW to the grid.

“Unplanned breakdowns remain pretty steady and high this year, at about 30% of Eskom’s generation capacity in commercial service,” he said.

Eskom achieved a higher average energy availability factor (EAF) in the first four months of 2024 than the same time last year, allowing it to reduce load-shedding.

Yelland said the higher EAF trend this year is mainly attributable to the corresponding reduction in planned maintenance outages (PCLF).

The increased EAF and lower load-shedding at the start of the year was, therefore, because Eskom did less maintenance and not lower levels of unplanned breakdowns (UCLF).

Eskom System Operator head Isabel Fick added that increased photovoltaic solar power helped Eskom cut load-shedding in April.

2,800 MW of photovoltaic solar is directly connected to the Eskom grid, with other “behind-the-meter” solar installations of around 5,440 MW.

Fick said the contributions of these solar power plants and rooftop solar installations allowed Eskom to replenish its pumped storage capacity during the day rather than at night.

Eskom can then use its emergency generation capacity – pumped storage and diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines – over the evening peak when solar energy is unavailable.

When the sun shines most of the day, like in April, it relieves tremendous pressure off the grid. However, things change for the worse when it is overcast or rains, like in March.

The charts below, courtesy of Chris Yelland of EE Business Intelligence, show Eskom’s performance over the last few months compared to previous years.

Eskom energy availability factor

Eskom planned maintenance

Eskom unplanned outages