Kiss load-shedding goodbye

Professor Sampson Mamphweli of the South African National Energy Development Institute says the country could see the end of load-shedding as early as October 2024.

Speaking to Newzroom Afrika, Mamphweli said several factors, including Eskom’s improved energy availability factor (EAF), fewer breakdowns, and lessened demand, mean the generation system is performing well.

“It’s been a good four months of no load-shedding, and the data that we have from Eskom shows that it’s basically because the system is performing very well,” he said.

“We also have other factors such as small-scale embedded generation coming onboard. We’ve got about 6GW of rooftop solar PV that has been installed by households and businesses that continue to help, even in winter.”

He said the latest stats show that Eskom has more than 30GW of capacity available, while demand remains low.

“Eskom is able to use the additional capacity to build reserves through pumped storage and other things,” said Mamphweli.

Curiously, he said demand could increase as we move into the summer months, as more businesses and households will start switching on air conditioners to keep cool.

However, historical demand figures during winter are typically significantly higher than in summer.

“I am very much optimistic that we may be able to continue to sustain this until we start the beginning of summer, and if we go through the beginning of summer without load-shedding, we might see the end of load-shedding,” said Mamphweli.

“I am very confident that by November, December, government should be declaring the end of load-shedding in South Africa.”

However, the claim that demand has reduced solely due to small-scale embedded generation may not tell the full story.

In early July 2024, former Reserve Bank deputy governor Kuben Naidoo said the mining sector in South Africa has been under significant strain and ramping up production could make load-shedding a reality again.

Naidoo said lower demand for commodities and higher input costs have hampered productivity in South Africa’s mining sector, leading to lower production and reduced energy consumption.

“My personal view is that half of the reason we don’t have load shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,” he stated.

Naidoo said he believes load-shedding will return if South Africa “switches on” the mining sector.

While it remains to be seen what ramping up production in South Africa’s mining industry will mean for load-shedding, Eskom expects a further 1,740MW of generation capacity to return to service by the end of 2024.

This should have a marked impact on the state-owned power utility’s EAF figure. Two units are expected to return before year’s end:

• Medupi Unit 4 will return to service by August 2024, adding another 800MW to the national grid.
• Koeberg Unit 2 will return to service by the end of September 2024, returning 940MW to the grid.

Eskom brought another big unit — Kusile Unit 5 — online in late June 2024, adding 800MW to the national power grid and bringing Kusile Power Station’s total contribution to 4,000MW.

The state-owned power utility first synchronised the unit to the grid on 31 December 2023, and it has been undergoing a series of tests while intermittently supplying power to the grid.

“After six months of rigorous testing and optimisation, Eskom is pleased to announce the successful transfer of Unit 5 of the Kusile Power Station from the new build programme to operations in the Generation Division,” said Eskom.

Eskom System Operator general manager Isabel Fick said the unit will be crtitical for stabilising South Africa’s electricity network.

“Kusile Unit 5 makes an extremely valuable contribution to the national grid. Not only is it one of the largest baseload units contributing megawatts, but it also enhances the stability of the network through its nature,” she said.