When Eskom will declare the end of load-shedding

Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena says the power utility anticipates that load-shedding will be a thing of the past by March 2025.

Speaking to SABC News, she said the improvements in generation capacity were due to Eskom’s generation operational plan, which kicked off in March 2023.

“We envisaged that by March 2025, we should have completed all the activities with the objective of achieving 70% energy availability factor, which gives us above 33,000MW,” said Mokwena.

“So, looking at the demand currently, which is hovering around 28,000 MW to 30,000MW in winter, and much lower in the summer period, we’re actually in a very good position to say that we would, in March, achieve 70%,” she continued.

“Then we may achieve that instance where load-shedding is something of the past.”

Eskom’s prediction for the end of load-shedding is more conservative than Professor Sampson Mamphweli’s of the South African National Energy Development Institute.

In July 2024, Mamphweli said load-shedding could be history by as early as October this year.

He explained that factors like Eskom’s improved energy availability factor (EAF), fewer breakdowns, and lessened demand.

“It’s been a good four months of no load-shedding, and the data that we have from Eskom shows that it’s basically because the system is performing very well,” he said.

“We also have other factors, such as small-scale embedded generation coming onboard. We’ve got about 6GW of rooftop solar PV that has been installed by households and businesses that continue to help, even in winter.”

With Eskom’s capacity reaching around 33,000MW and demand remaining low, Mamphweli said Eskom could use the additional capacity to build reserves through pumped storage and other means.

He said demand could increase as we move into the summer months, as more businesses and households start using air conditioners to stay cool.

However, historical demand figures during winter are typically significantly higher than in summer, as Mokwena indicated.

“I am very much optimistic that we may be able to continue to sustain this until we start the beginning of summer, and if we go through the beginning of summer without load-shedding, we might see the end of load-shedding,” said Mamphweli.

“I am very confident that by November, December, government should be declaring the end of load-shedding in South Africa.”

Electricity and energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said Eskom’s improved performance, which has allowed for an extensive load-shedding suspension, is set to continue.

He said Eskom’s plant availability has trended upwards since the start of the year while breakdowns have reduced.

“Generation has been able to maintain the unplanned losses below -14,000MW throughout the winter period while leveraging the improved performance to conduct additional short-term Planned Capacity Loss Factor,” said Ramokgopa.

He said Eskom’s generation fleet is performing far more consistently and reliably going into 2024’s summer than it was at the same time in 2023.

“All indications suggest that this performance trajectory is sustainable,” said Ramokgopa.

“We continue to drive efforts to complement the coal fleet with new generation capacity in line with the IRP, including conversion of the Open Cycle Gas Turbines from diesel to gas and from open to close cycle operating systems.”

However, this might not tell the full story, as some experts believe that the break from load-shedding has resulted from reduced energy demand from large consumers.

Former Reserve Bank deputy governor Kuben Naidoo said South Africa’s mining sector is seeing low demand for commodities and increased input costs, causing it to reduce production.

This, in turn, reduces their energy consumption and demand on the grid.

“My personal view is that half of the reason we don’t have load shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,” said Naidoo.

Naidoo said he believes load-shedding will return if South Africa “switches on” the mining sector.