South African solar surge

Installed rooftop solar capacity has grown significantly in South Africa, surpassing 6,000MW in September 2024 — nearly triple the country’s capacity in September 2022.

Eskom’s system status report for the week from 30 September to 6 October 2024 shows that installed rooftop solar capacity increased to 6,141MW in September from 5,953MW in August.

According to the power utility’s data, a nearly 200MW increase in installed rooftop capacity was observed in Mpumalanga.

However, it notes that this capacity may have been installed in earlier months, and its data may have been distorted by a high number of cloudy days between reports.

“If there is a big jump from month to month it is mainly due to the high number of cloudy days during the latter month, not necessarily due to the number of installations in that month,” says Eskom.

“It would very likely have been distributed in the preceding few months.”

According to the latest data, Gauteng maintains the top spot for installed rooftop solar capacity per province, totalling 1,799MW.

It is followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 811MW and the Western Cape with 710MW. Mpumalanga’s recent increase in solar capacity pushed it ahead of the North West province and into fourth.

Intense load-shedding in 2022 and 2023 resulted in rapid increases in South Africa’s installed rooftop solar capacity, as many of the country’s households installed backup power to escape the rotational power cuts.

Capacity more than doubled from 2,333MW in September 2022 to 4,883MW in September 2023. Installed rooftop solar capacity had reached 5,204MW by the end of 2023.

The table below shows South Africa’s installed rooftop capacity monthly from September 2022 to September 2024, according to Eskom’s system status data.

Solar demand plummets

Following the significant increases in installed solar rooftop capacity in 2023, an ongoing load-shedding suspension since March 2024 has caused demand for solar installations to plummet.

According to the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA), the frequency and intensity of load-shedding and access to finance are the primary drivers behind demand for solar systems.

It noted that most of the demand for backup and off-grid power solutions in recent years had come primarily from high-income households.

With the load-shedding suspension recently hitting a milestone of 200 days, demand has lessened considerably.

However, demand in the commercial segment hasn’t declined as drastically.

SAPVIA explained that heightened demand for solar installations usually coincides with the winter months when demand for power increases.

However, this trend didn’t continue in 2024.

“On the residential sector market segment, absolutely, the rate of installations has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year when we were experiencing stage 3 or 4 of load-shedding at this time of year,” said SAPVIA’s De Wet Taljaard.

Another likely contributor to the decline in demand for solar power products is the South African government’s decision to scrap its solar tax rebate incentive in March 2024.

The incentive, launched in March 2023, likely contributed to the country’s rapid uptake of solar power last year.

Households could claim 25% back on the tax they paid for their new solar panels up to a maximum of R15,000. The incentive didn’t include inverters and batteries.

However, households got a raw deal compared to businesses.

Through the incentive, businesses in South Africa could deduct 50% of their solar panel costs in the first year, 30% in year two, and 20% in year three on qualifying investments with a capacity greater than 1MW.