Eskom load-shedding surprise — with a warning
Despite implementing load-shedding for the first time in 10 months last week, the Eskom system status outlook for the rest of the year has improved drastically in recent weeks.
A comparison of Eskom and the National Transmission Company of South Africa’s (NTCSA’s) data for week 1 and week 4 of 2025 shows a significant decline in the expected shortfalls in generating capacity.
The forecast previously anticipated seven weeks in which Eskom’s supply would be over 2,000MW short to meet demand under its “planned” risk scenario of 15,200MW in unplanned breakdowns.
Under this risk level, Eskom no longer expects any weeks with capacity shortages over 1,001MW.
Under the “likely” risk scenario of 17,200MW in unplanned outages, the forecast for week 1 had anticipated a shortfall greater than 2,000MW in 34 weeks. That reduced to 13 weeks in the latest forecast.
Under the likely risk scenario, the majority of the weeks up to the end of the year are now expected to experience less severe shortfalls between 1,001MW and 2,000MW.
In the planned risk scenario, Eskom expects to have enough supply to meet demand during 36 weeks of the year, instead of 15.
Two key figures in the forecast have been adjusted significantly in the latest outlook.
The first is the forecasted residual demand — basically, how much power Eskom expects South Africa to require.
For example, the week 1 outlook anticipated Eskom’s residual demand would peak at 33,033MW in the 22nd week of the year, starting on 26 May 2025.
The week 4 outlook for the same week shows this figure has been reduced to 31,312MW.
In addition, Eskom also appears to have signficantly reduced its planned maintenance during the winter.
In the forecasted peak demand week, its week 4 outlook showed only 2,397MW would be taken offline for scheduled maintenance, compared with the 3,362MW it had planned in week 1’s outlook.
That should mean Eskom will have roughly 1,000MW of additional capacity available for dispatching.
It should be emphasised that the power utility generally conducts less planned maintenance during the winter to avoid exacerbating shortfalls during the period with the highest electricity demand.
The tables below compare the system status outlooks in week 1 and week 4 of 2025. For reference, the colours used indicate the following:
- Green — No expected shortage of supply to meet demand
- Yellow — Less than 1,000MW short of supply to meet demand (possible stage 1 load-shedding)
- Orange — Between 1,001MW and 2,000MW short of supply to meet demand (stage 1 to stage 2 load-shedding)
- Red — Over 2,000MW short of supply to meet demand (stage 2 or higher load-shedding)
| Eskom outlook analysis | Week 1 forecast | Week 4 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Planned risk level | ||
| Green weeks | 15 | 36 |
| Yellow weeks | 14 | 13 |
| Orange weeks | 13 | 0 |
| Red weeks | 7 | 0 |
| Likely risk level | ||
| Green weeks | 2 | 3 |
| Yellow weeks | 1 | 6 |
| Orange weeks | 10 | 27 |
| Red weeks | 34 | 13 |
The system status outlooks should be approached with caution, given the general poor reliability of Eskom’s generating fleet and its unpredictable performance.
After all, the expectation for last week was that Eskom would be able to meet demand under the planned risk level and or be between 1,001MW and 2,000MW short of capacity under the likely risk scenario.
The latter would only have required stage 1 or stage 2 load-shedding but due to a “perfect storm” of unit breakdowns at two of the power utility’s most reliable power stations, Eskom implemented stage 3 load-shedding at short notice.
Despite last week’s setback, Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati recently expressed confidence that load-shedding would be history by the end of March 2025.
Nyati explained that the utility’s two-year generation recovery plan was expected to be fully executed by that time.
According to the chairman, the nail in the coffin for load-shedding will be the synchronisation of Kusile Unit 6, expected to happen by the end of February, and the return to service of Medupi Unit 4, slated for next month.
Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also emphasised that Eskom’s unplanned breakdowns and energy availability factor were still trending in the right direction.
However, energy experts and economists have warned the country won’t be in the clear for good if any noteworthy economic growth occurred, which would push up electricity demand and strain Eskom’s fleet again.
The only true fix for load-shedding will be new and reliable generating capacity.
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