Get ready for dark days in South Africa

Eskom and its board chair, Mteto Nyati, have declined to comment on the power utility missing energy availability targets and its failure to announce the end of load-shedding as promised.

Eskom board chair Mteto Nyati promised South Africa earlier this year that he, the CEO, and the electricity minister would be able to announce the end of load-shedding come April.

However, two weeks into April there has been no press conference or other public announcement from the power utility or its chairman.

“We had this plan. This was a two-year plan which was adopted in March 2023. We have been implementing that plan,” Nyati said in February.

“We are now like two or three months away from the end of that two years. End of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” he added.

“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister (Kgosientsho Ramokgopa), myself, and the CEO (Dan Marokane), and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”

Nyati made this promise after Eskom was forced to implement Stage 3 load-shedding at short notice at the end of January.

He explained that to declare the end of load-shedding, Eskom had to complete specific projects between the beginning of February and the end of March.

These included synchronising Kusile power station’s Unit 6 to the grid and bringing Medupi Unit 4 back online.

Eskom announced on 23 March that Kusile Unit 6 was brought online. However, it is only scheduled to achieve full commercial operation in the second half of the year.

Medupi Unit 4’s return to service has also been pushed back to between the end of April and early May 2025.

However, this delay and the additional time needed to fully operationalise Kusile Unit 6 do not explain why Eskom has fallen woefully short of its energy availability factor (EAF) targets.

Energy Availability Failure

Eskom data shows that its EAF for the 2025 calendar year to date has varied from a minimum of 54.22% to a maximum of 58.89%.

The average EAF for the calendar year to date is 56.66%, which is lower than the 59.78% average for 2024 and well below the targets Eskom had set for itself.

Former Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said on 22 January 2023 that they had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.

Makwana set an energy availability factor target of 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.

He said if the EAF could be improved to around 70%, load-shedding would be a thing of the past, and South Africa would have electricity security.

After Makwana stepped down and Nyati took over as chair, a new Eskom board established its reimagined Generation Operational Recovery Plan to revitalise the utility’s senescent coal fleet.

Although the goals of the new board’s Generation Operational Recovery Plan were similar to Makwana’s — improving EAF through targeted maintenance — there weren’t specific targets.

However, Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena reiterated in August 2024 that if Eskom’s EAF reached 70%, it would officially mean the end of load-shedding.

She explained Eskom would then have reached a point where its availability exceeded peak demand during the winter, when its grid experienced significant strain.

Unfortunately, Eskom only achieved an average of 70% EAF during one week in mid-2024. Based on the available data, its operational recovery appears to have stagnated.

The extensive maintenance Eskom conducted during the past 18 months also does not appear to have had a lasting impact on the reliability of its coal power stations.

While load-shedding was suspended for an extended period, South Africa was once again plunged into load-shedding at short notice after several generating units broke down in quick succession at the start of the year.

Declining demand

Compounding these concerns is that peak electricity demand and total system energy demand have declined, yet Eskom still could not meet the country’s needs.

In the chart above, Stellenbosch University’s Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies showed that peak and overall electricity demand dropped sharply in 2024.

MyBroadband asked Eskom and Nyati for comment about the end of the Generation Operational Recovery Plan and why the promised announcement about the end of load-shedding did not happen.

Nyati forwarded the query to Eskom, and Eskom declined to comment, saying it would provide feedback at a future media briefing.

“We believe it would be prudent for Eskom to include updates on the progress of its EAF and overall Generation Operational Recovery Plan in its forthcoming media briefing on its Power System and Winter Outlook,” Mokwena said.

Eskom has said its system and winter outlook briefing will happen sometime in April. No specific date has been set.