Eskom load-shedding update

Eskom says it has made substantial inroads in restoring some of its generation units to service after the power utility announced the need for stage 2 load-shedding during the evening peaks from Tuesday, 13 May, to Thursday, 15 May 2025.

In a statement sent on WhatsApp on Thursday afternoon, the power utility confirmed that it will suspend the rotational power cuts after the evening peak demand period.

“From 22:00, load-shedding will be suspended,” said Eskom.

On Tuesday, the power utility said load-shedding was necessary due to the delayed return of 3,120MW of generating capacity from scheduled maintenance, and additional losses of 1,385MW in the 24 hours before its announcement.

Eskom now says it has restored 1,175MW to service and that it expects a further 1,850MW to return before the evening peak on Friday, 16 May.

“These improvements contribute to overall system stability, supported by sufficient emergency reserves, which will be strategically deployed when necessary,” it said.

While Eskom is addressing the problem, the sudden need for Stage 2 load-shedding has raised concerns over the power utility’s outlook for the 2025 winter period.

Presenting its 2025 Winter Outlook on 5 May, Eskom highlighted the scenarios in which load-shedding would and wouldn’t be required.

It said no load-shedding would be required if unplanned capacity losses stayed below 13,000MW, and 21 days of up to Stage 2 load-shedding would be necessary if unplanned losses reached 15,000MW.

However, Eskom’s hourly Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) and other capacity loss factors chart shows that it already exceeded 15,000MW of unplanned losses on Monday, 12 May.

The chart shows that unplanned losses peaked at 16,189MW at midnight on Tuesday, 13 May.

Impower energy expert Matthew Cruise believes South Africans should expect load-shedding up to Stage 4 this winter.

“Eskom is not giving much detail about what has been going on at the individual power stations,” he said.

Cruise said the recent losses are problematic as the country has yet to reach the period of peak demand, with pressure on the grid expected to continue rising.

“We can actually expect that there’s going to be load-shedding up to stage 4, so we need to prepare for that,” he added.

Eskom’s UCLF and other capacity loss factor trend chart showing a peak of 16,189MW at midnight on Tuesday, 13 May 2025, is shown below.