Eskom danger zone

Eskom’s unplanned outages averaged 14,738 MW over the last week, well above its base case of 13,000 MW for the 2025 winter period.

This was revealed in an update on Eskom’s system on Friday, 13 June 2025, in which it showed the latest performance data.

Eskom said its power system remains stable and continues to demonstrate resilience, with adequate emergency reserves in place.

It added that these emergency reserves are strategically deployed to support demand during the morning and evening peak periods.

While there has been no load-shedding in recent weeks, Eskom is dangerously close to a breakdown threshold at which point it said it would likely have to implement load-shedding.

On 5 May 2025, Eskom shared its Winter Outlook with South Africans, which covers the period from 1 May 2025 to 31 August 2025.

This outlook forecast that load shedding would not be necessary if unplanned outages remain below 13,000 MW.

However, if outages reach 15,000 MW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to stage 2.

Eskom’s latest data showed that from 6 to 12 June 2025, unplanned outages averaged 3,114 MW higher compared to the same period last year.

It is 1,738 MW above Eskom’s base case of 13,000 MW, which means South Africa is in load-shedding territory.

For the financial year to date, from 1 April 2025 to 12 June 2025, the average unplanned outages stand at 13,871 MW.

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures the capacity lost due to unplanned outages, stands at 29.05% for the financial year to date.

This represents an increase of 1.3% compared to 27.79% recorded over the same period last year.

Eskom explained that the increase in unplanned outages is primarily driven by outage slips at its coal-fired power stations.

“The rise in unplanned outages is partly attributed to delays in returning units from planned maintenance amounting to 1,800 MW, including 800 MW from Medupi Unit 4 since 1 June 2025,” it said.

Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF)

Eskom set an energy availability factor (EAF) target of 70% by March 2025, which it said would mean the end of load shedding.

“The target is to reach a 70% EAF by March 2025, which will not only ensure a stable energy supply but also reduce diesel expenditure,” Eskom said.

Eskom announced that its month-to-date energy availability factor has reached 60.56%, while the year-to-date EAF stands at 58.06%.

This year-to-date EAF for Eskom’s power systems is a 2.92% decline compared to 60.98% recorded during the same period last year.

This decrease is primarily attributed to a 1.6% increase in planned maintenance, reported as the planned capability loss factor, year-on-year.

Eskom said it was making steady progress as it moved beyond the peak maintenance season at its power plants.

The planned capability loss factor increased slightly from the previous week’s average of 4,035 MW to 4,087 MW.

As a result, the EAF has been recovering and was fluctuating between 60% and 64% since Monday.

Eskom said the improvement in EAF during the month reflecting the successful return of additional generation units from planned maintenance.

For the financial year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged 5,793 MW, representing 12.36% of total generation capacity.

“We plan to return a total of 3 170MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Tuesday, 17 June 2025, to further stabilise the grid,” Eskom said.