Eating their words: Less-than-prophetic quotes in SA tech
There are many famous quotes in the international technology and computing arena which have become a benchmark for poor predictions.
Digital Equipment Corp president Ken Olson’s 1977 prediction that “There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home,” was less than prophetic, but no less so than Lord Kelvin’s 1895 statement that “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”
Likewise, Lord Kelvin’s 1897 prediction that “Radio has no future,” does not reveal a talent for predicting the future.
In 1943, IBMs chairman Thomas Watson didn’t fare any better, stating: “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
More recently the well known British entrepreneur Sir Alan Sugar said in 2005 that “next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.”
The media also got it wrong on many occasions. Two examples which stand out are Popular Mechanics’ wise words in 1949 that “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons,” and The Boston Post’s 1865 statement that “well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.”
Local ‘foot in mouth’ quotes
How about the South African telecommunications and tech market? It is not difficult to find a few quotes which will not go down in history as brimming with wisdom and foresight. Below are a few quotes from politicians, CEOs and other prominent tech personalities in South Africa.
Department of Communications
In a press statement issued on 15 July 2010, Communications Minister Siphiwe Nyanda dismissed as “false, spurious and malicious” allegations that he was about to suspend the Director-General in his Department, Mamodupi Mohlala.
This statement came days before another statement from the ministry issued on 23 July stating that: “In the interests of the Department, the staff and the government, the Minister has come to the conclusion that it would be best to release Ms Mohlala from her position as Director General with effect from 23 July 2010.”
Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) Committee chairman Prof. Tshilidzi Marwala said in mid-2007 that the LLU process will be completed in 2011. Marwala said that he believed that “by the end of 2007 all the mechanisms will be in place for Telkom to open up the local loop to rivals” and that he expected Telkom to start giving rivals access to its copper infrastructure by January 2008.
Marwala clearly was not well versed when it comes to the local telecommunications environment and dealing with ICASA and Telkom. Three and a half years after Marwala made his less-than-prophetic predictions, nothing much has changed and SA’s copper local loop is still firmly in the hands of Telkom.
Cell C
Former Cell C CEO Jeffrey Hedberg said in early 2008 that “3G is hype and we won’t fall prey to hype,” arguing that there is no business case for 3G. Hedberg started to realise the importance of a mobile broadband network towards the end of his tenure at Cell C, and less than two years after Hedberg’s comments, Cell C is investing billions into a 3G network to stay competitive.
Hedberg is now currently the acting CEO of Telkom and the company is also rolling out a 3G network which it considers vitally important to compete in the mobile market.
MTN
In June 2004 when MTN held a demonstration of what 3G technology was capable of, Karel Pienaar, then MTN Group CTO, said that if Vodacom launched a commercially viable solution before the end of the year (2004), “I`ll eat my hat.”
Vodacom launched their first 3G offerings in December 2004, well before MTN rolled out its first third-generation offering.
Exactmobile
Exactmobile’s Gavin Penkin also questioned Vodacom’s 3G network rollout in 2004, saying that “For the most part, corporates are not using GPRS, so why would they use 3G? There are many users out there with a camera phones, but do they use them to send pictures to people on a daily or weekly basis? How many people out there are buying premium content using GPRS? The market is 18 months away from being ready to use 3G services and, until then, launching a 3G network would just be a waste of money.”
Vodacom’s early launch of 3G gave it a particularly strong position in the corporate data market, a lead which their competitors are still battling to narrow.
MultiChoice
In a Brainstorm article dated 27 June 2005, then MultiChoice South Africa CEO Nolo Letele said that “In three years, mobile TV will be all over the place.” Over five years later commercial mobile TV has not been launched in South Africa and DVB-H handsets are few and far between.
Do you know of any other less than prophetic South African telecoms and IT quotes? Share on the MyBroadband forum.
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