Author Robert Wood Johnson is predicting a regime crisis and regime change in South Africa in his book How Will South Africa Survive?.
Johnson, who accurately predicted the fall of the apartheid regime in South Africa in 1977, said the country is in a similar situation now as it was in the seventies.
“We have a regime [ANC government] which is facing a crisis and change before very long,” said Johnson in a News24 interview.
“South Africa is dependent on an inward flow of investment. If that stops for any length of time, there will be a regime change. No government can survive that.”
Speaking at the Gordon Institute of Business Science recently, Johnson said foreign investment in the country has essentially dried up.
“Last year, South Africa invested far more abroad than what was invested here – we became net foreign investors.”
He said South Africa’s debt levels are higher than the suggested IMF levels, and that the country is headed for a crunch.
Before very long, Johnson predicted, South Africa will face a debt trap and have to resort to an IMF bailout.
The conditions of the IMF bailout – which is likely to include cuts in public service and social grants spending – will change the political environment.
“To me this will be a crisis to the ruling party,” said Johnson.