Satellite 2022 Conference update: What the latest industry trends mean for Africa

The global satellite industry is in a significant growth phase as it evolves to meet changing circumstances and needs.
We visited the SATELLITE 2022 event in Washington DC to look for pointers as to what these changes could mean for Africa.
Ever Lower Launch Costs
It’s an obvious point, but one that’s often overlooked: the cheaper it is to deploy equipment into space, the more devices we can put there.
This single parameter is the ultimate driver for the development of manned space missions and new space research stations, the drive to capitalise on space tourism.
In short, every single aspect of the space industry is constrained or enabled by this single metric.
The global Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market is expected to grow from $3.5 billion in 2021 to $4,13 billion in 2022 and some $9 billion by 2026, representing a CAGR of 21.5%.
This growth is mainly due to the increasing adoption of LEO satellites across various sectors, the rising importance of the communications and defence industries, increasing awareness of the potential offered by new forms of technology, the growth of the Internet of Things (IoT), machine learning (ML), rapid advancements in aerospace, robust government support for technology initiatives in many nations, the trend towards software-defined payloads for communication satellites, miniaturisation and increasingly sophisticated payload management systems.
Risk-First – Space Debris
The opening keynote presentation at Satellite 2022 was delivered by Jim Bridenstine, formerly of NASA.
He very clearly spelled out the risk of a total Low Earth Orbit destruction, not just from a couple of satellites, or for one constellation, but a failure of the entire LEO constellation due to space debris and the escalation of that risk by the proliferation of launch programmes.
The good news is the satellite industry takes this issue very seriously, a fact that is reflected in this risk being addressed in the opening keynote presentation and being raised as an issue in all the subsequent panel discussions.
Mark Dankberg (Chairman of the Board, Executive Chairman and Co-Founder of ViaSat) stated that the risk posed by space debris is simply an engineering problem which should be modelled and then resolved.
The solution may not be quite this easy, but ultimately this challenge is no different from any of the other daunting problems that the space industry has overcome in the past.
Increased National Interest
Industry growth, lower costs and national security concerns are combining to drive a new interest in satellite programmes amongst national governments.
Viasat’s Dankberg stated that, “One of the things we learned is that many countries in the world have their own aspirations for space.”
“They are really not looking just to pay rent to use somebody else’s system, but they want to get all the benefits of being a participant in space.”
“And that means — it varies from country to country — but often it means technology development, manufacturing, operations, launch capability in some places”.
Steve Collar, CEO of SES, sees this desire for space capability as “part of a broader trend, which is countries really understanding the strategic importance of space and understanding that it can be an important way to maintain sovereignty.”
This has been brought into “sharp focus” by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he added.
Telecom Wide Collaborative Integration
A very interesting and strategic deflection is that operators are increasingly seeking deals with telecommunications companies and mobile network operators, not just for access to backhaul, but to deliver connectivity directly to consumers’ cellphones in the future, according to Mark Dankberg of ViaSat.
“The thing that people are talking about now is connecting space directly to your handheld phone.”
“That’s what the L-band system is about. The technology behind this has been available for years.”
“The only thing that’s been missing is getting the right chips in cellphones or IoT devices — and now that’s coming,” explained Dankberg.
This view was confirmed by SES’ Steve Collar, who commented that, “We think that aggregating satellite services through larger local sites that then distribute them terrestrially is a more cost-effective way to get to end users.”
He added, “This will also drive interesting integration between ourselves and Telcos or local service providers.”
Technology Highlights
While the industry panel discussions focused more on macro-level matters, the underlining technology developments are very promising.
For example, the high bandwidth inter-satellite data links made possible by laser-based optical communications technology are set to revolutionise the satellite ecosystem and enable a new generation of autonomous orbital vehicles.
“It’s as big of a leap forward in technology for the industry as when we first started networking computers with each other,” said Bulent Altan, CEO of laser communications specialist Mynaric, describing optical inter-satellite links, or OISL.
“Up until recently, satellites were just singular objects flying in space only talking to the ground, essentially.”
“Now we can have data exchanges in space.”
“We can exchange our information from multiple sensors, from multiple data generators, [process that and] generate a result in space and then decide where and when we’re going to download it.”
What does this mean for Africa?
There is increasing certainty that all the planned LEO, MEO and other proposed global programmes will actually materialise.
The question is now not whether these developments will happen, but rather how and when, and what the implications will be.
The expected growth in the satellite industry will enable attractive and much needed options for the Africa market including classical broadband services for the consumer and business sectors, plus specialised services such as IoT, bandwidth on demand and communication options to enable computing.
While the industry develops these mega global constellations and brings advanced technology to end-user level there is a definitive realisation that developed markets differ significantly from emerging markets such as Africa, and that Africa would be best served through partnerships with specialised providers such as Q-KON – a company which has already delivered genuine market success with their Twoobii platform.
This idea was articulated by SpaceX President and COO, Gwynne Shotwell, who explained that she finds such international partnerships to be one of the more fascinating parts of the business as SpaceX looks to grow the service footprint of its Starlink LEO constellation.
“Moving into a new country, learning what those customers want, what do they need? What can they afford? And how can you build a product that is helpful to them?” Shotwell said.
“We know that what works in the U.S. and Canada will not work in many nations in Africa.”
“But that doesn’t mean that the capability can’t be well utilised by the people there,” she added.
Conclusions
The satellite industry is indeed moving into a completely new era, and the dominant telecommunication satellite platform in 10 years’ time will probably be based on LEO constellations.
This wave of expansion is being driven by mega players within the global industry who can access first world capital markets and balance their initial business models by leveraging market demand which is much more lucrative than anything currently possible in Africa.
Yet the best route to a long-term, sustainable market could very well be the larger, broader user base from Africa where second-wave business models could be used to unlock real and lasting industry growth.
This scenario has been demonstrated by the mobile network industry which remains one of Africa’s biggest telecom success stories to date.
There is a traditional African proverb that is particularly applicable here: “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together”.
This approach is likely to prove critical to the global satellite industry as it seeks judicious and rewarding partnerships in Africa.
Article supplied by:
Dr Dawie de Wet (Pr. Eng. M.Sc. Eng.) – Group CEO of Q-KON and Chief Engineer for Twoobii, a locally supported satellite broadband service.
With over 30 years’ experience in designing, engineering, developing and implementing wireless, microwave and satellite communication systems in Africa, Dawie is focused on developing Telco solutions that integrate user requirements, emerging markets and class-leading technology.