PrimeXBT Insights: Could global M2 money supply propel Bitcoin above 110k to record highs?

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have made crypto and traditional markets more unpredictable and volatile.
Bitcoin briefly dipped below 100K as concerns surrounding the region hurt risk sentiment, before recovering above 105K on ceasefire optimism.
But could these short-term moves be just “noise”?
PrimeXBT, a multi-asset broker regulated by the FSCA that recently expanded its crypto services into South Africa, examines the potential link between Bitcoin’s price and broader liquidity trends—particularly the role of global M2 money supply in shaping its longer-term trajectory.
If this relationship holds, Bitcoin could still be on track to break above 110K and reach fresh record highs in the coming months.
What is M2 supply?
Global money supply, or global M2 supply, measures the total amount of liquid assets readily available for spending or investing in the global economy.
It includes all physical currency, account deposits, savings accounts, money market mutual funds, and other time deposits.
Global liquidity increases when major central banks make more money available to the country.
This can be done by reducing interest rates or purchasing government bonds to increase the money supply.
Expanding M2 supply & Bitcoin correlation
Right now, the M2 money supply is expanding despite the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.
The M2 supply has risen 6% since the start of the year to $99.8 trillion, partly due to the ECB cutting rates by 100 basis points and Japan’s massive fiscal stimulus.
Expansion in the M2 money supply is often well aligned with the rally in Bitcoin.
The concept is simple: the more money in circulation, the more devalued fiat is.
Inflationary pressure prompts investors to seek alternatives that preserve wealth, a hedge against inflation.
Additionally, higher liquidity levels encourage speculation, creating a favourable environment for asset price appreciation.

When the price of Bitcoin is compared with the M2 growth rate, the two historically move in tandem, with around a 10-week lag.
Bitcoin bull runs have often coincided with an expansion of global liquidity.
While this isn’t a 1:1 correlation, it is directionally predictive.
If so, the model suggests that Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory remains upwards.
Could M2 supply to expand further?
Should major central banks cut rates further or governments implement large fiscal stimulus, M2 supply could continue to expand.
The Federal Reserve has not cut rates so far this year, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned over the potential for higher inflation ahead due to the impact of trade tariffs.
However, the Fed’s dot plot points to two 25 basis point rate reductions by the end of the year.
Furthermore, recent Fed speakers such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have joined a growing chorus of Fed officials who believe the Fed should stay open to the possibility of a rate cut as soon as next month.
The Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy would increase M2 supply further, which could help Bitcoin surge higher.
H2 tailwinds
Heading towards the second half of the year, in addition to the M2 supply, other tailwinds are offering support.
These include increased crypto adoption by corporate treasuries and rising regulatory clarity.
Corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption is becoming an important source of demand.
Firms, including those in industries unrelated to crypto, are buying up Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to hold.
Corporate holdings account for 3.2% of all Bitcoin, rising almost daily, supporting the price and boosting legitimacy.
Meanwhile, significant regulatory developments, particularly regarding stablecoin and crypto market structure, are underway and could significantly improve the US crypto landscape.
Trading crypto with PrimeXBT
Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook appears closely tied to global M2 money supply.
As liquidity expands—driven by potential rate cuts and fiscal stimulus—Bitcoin could break above $110K.
Combined with rising corporate adoption and improving regulatory clarity, conditions could align for potential new record highs.
PrimeXBT, a multi-asset broker regulated by the FSCA, has recently expanded its offering in South Africa to include crypto asset services.
This enables local traders to access opportunities in Bitcoin and other digital assets within a secure, regulated environment.
Clients can go long or short to capture market moves in either direction, giving them the flexibility to trade in both bullish and bearish conditions.
With PrimeXBT, traders gain access to both crypto and traditional financial instruments—including Crypto Futures, Forex, and CFDs on Crypto, Indices, Commodities, and Stocks—using crypto or fiat as margin.
Markets are available across the industry-standard MT5 platform and PrimeXBT’s native platforms, featuring advanced charting tools, risk management functions, and customisable layouts—all within one integrated trading environment.
Clients can deposit and withdraw in BTC, ETH, USDT, USDC, and USD, open fiat and crypto-denominated accounts, and exchange crypto using the integrated exchange functionality.
With regional payment methods and a setup tailored to local needs, PrimeXBT offers a seamless experience for both new and experienced traders looking to explore global markets.
Start trading with PrimeXBT South Africa.
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