Eskom’s miracle

Eskom has completely turned its performance around. In recent weeks, the utility has generated too much power, which has forced it to place some units in cold reserve.

This is a stark difference from the same time last year when South Africa was subjected to daily power cuts, with extensive periods of stage 6 load-shedding.

“This time last year, we were going through a very difficult time as Eskom and as a country. So, it is very encouraging that we can now operate in what is called ‘normal form’,” Eskom’s head of generation, Bheki Nxumalo, said.

Nxumalo explained to Newzroom Afrika that all of Eskom’s power stations are steadily improving, with the fleet’s energy availability factor (EAF) above 70% for the past two weeks.

On 23 July, Eskom achieved 35,000 MW of available capacity. This level of generation capacity was last seen six years ago.

Energy analyst Chris Yelland, managing director of EE Business Intelligence, said this sustained improvement is nothing short of exceptional.

He said the utility had improved markedly across all metrics, with its EAF improving while its unplanned breakdowns declined and planned maintenance levels were maintained.

Many South Africans were sceptical about Eskom’s improved performance in the buildup to the country’s national elections, fearing the utility was staving off load-shedding to bolster the ANC’s declining support.

This data, however, shows that Eskom’s improvements are not an election scam, Yelland said.

Nxumalo revealed that Eskom’s fleet is performing so well that it is creating problems for the system operator responsible for maintaining the stability of South Africa’s electricity grid.

During off-peak periods in the middle of day or over the weekend, the electricity grid now sits with over 10,000 MW in excess generation capacity.

This forces the system operator to begin shutting down units and placing them in cold reserve to ensure the grid remains stable.

Nxumalo said this is far better problem to have than managing a highly volatile generation fleet that plunged South Africa into regular bouts of load-shedding.

Eskom’s dramatically improved EAF in 2024 compared to the past two years is shown in the graph below.

Eskom’s turnaround explained

When asked how Eskom had achieved such a remarkable turnaround, Nxumalo pointed to the utility’s Generation Operational Recovery Plan.

This plan was approved by Eskom’s board in March 2023, following which the utility engaged in an intensive maintenance plan focusing on its coal-fired plants.

In particular, the utility focused on its six worst-performing power stations, as these plans contributed to 70% of Eskom’s unit failure.

On the other hand, five power stations were performing well. Thus, Eskom’s Generation division focused on improving the performance of the six stations, preventing the utility from meeting demand.

“But, the plan is one part of the turnaround,” Nxumalo said. “The critical component is the staff members that implement it. Without maintenance being conducted properly, the plan would have been ineffective.”

This echoes the sentiment of Eskom’s chairman, Mteto Nyati, who said one of the major changes that drove the turnaround of the utility was the overhaul of its management team and key staff members.

Eskom has been struggling with low morale at its power stations, which has led to low productivity and a failure to follow correct procedures when conducting maintenance.

“You need to have people who get it and understand what is going on. You need people who can pick up that feedback from employees at the plants is accurate and then can hold people to account,” Nyati said.

“When you have got leadership that cannot communicate clearly and just accepts whatever feedback comes from below, that is a problem. So, we had to change leadership within this company.”

Since his appointment, Nxumalo has reviewed Eskom’s plant managers and other senior employees at its power stations.

This has resulted in extensive changes to the leadership at some of the utility’s worst-performing power stations.

“What is important is that our people at Eskom have done what many people thought they could not do. Many people thought this was a dead horse, and this horse now appears to be running,” Nyati said.

“We can see light at the end of the tunnel, and we are confident, with the team we have, that the end of load-shedding is near.”

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This article was first published by Daily Investor and is reproduced with permission.