Load-shedding in South Africa nears end

South Africans could say goodbye to load-shedding as soon as October this year as Eskom’s performance continues improving.

Eskom’s performance has improved remarkably this year, enabling the utility’s supply to meet demand in the country relatively comfortably over the past few months. South Africa has not experienced load-shedding for over 120 days.

Last week marked another strong week for Eskom, which saw a further reduction in unplanned breakdowns (UCLF) within its fleet of coal-fired power stations.

In addition, the utility saw a corresponding increase in energy availability factor (EAF) for Week 30 of the year, ending 28 July 2024.

Energy analyst Chris Yelland said this was the first time in 3.5 years that Eskom’s EAF exceeded 70%.

“I never really expected to see this day and take my hat off to Eskom head of generation Bheki Nxumalo and team in appreciation and respect,” he said in a social media post.

Yelland has previously said the utility’s turnaround is nothing short of exceptional.

He said the utility had improved markedly across all metrics, with its EAF improving while its unplanned breakdowns declined and planned maintenance levels were maintained.

On 23 July, Eskom achieved 35,000 MW of available capacity, the highest level of generation capacity seen in six years.

Eskom’s achievement of an EAF of 70% is remarkable, as the utility has previously stated that it needs to reach 70% to eliminate load-shedding permanently.

Hope for the end of load-shedding has also been fueled by recent comments from Professor Sampson Mamphweli of the South African National Energy Development Institute.

Mamphweli recently said that the country could see the end of load-shedding as early as October 2024.

Mamphweli told Newzroom Afrika that several factors, including Eskom’s improved EAF, fewer breakdowns, and lessened demand, mean the generation system is performing well.

“It’s been a good four months of no load-shedding, and the data that we have from Eskom shows that it’s basically because the system is performing very well,” he said.

“We also have other factors, such as small-scale embedded generation coming onboard. We’ve got about 6GW of rooftop solar PV that has been installed by households and businesses that continue to help, even in winter.”

He said the latest stats show that Eskom has more than 30GW of capacity available while demand remains low.

“Eskom is able to use the additional capacity to build reserves through pumped storage and other things,” said Mamphweli.

“I am very much optimistic that we may be able to continue to sustain this until we start the beginning of summer, and if we go through the beginning of summer without load-shedding, we might see the end of load-shedding.”

“I am very confident that by November, December, the government should be declaring the end of load-shedding in South Africa.”

Eskom’s improved performance can be seen in the graph below, courtesy of Chris Yelland and EE Business Intelligence.

Cautious optimism

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane has attributed Eskom’s improved performance to its strategic implementation of a generation recovery plan, which has been instrumental in this transformation.

By prioritising maintenance, upskilling staff, and optimising operational efficiency, Eskom has managed to decrease unplanned outages and enhance the overall reliability of its coal-fired power plants.

However, while the utility has made remarkable progress, many challenges persist, and Eskom representatives have yet to say whether the end of load-shedding is truly here.

The utility has said that its Winter Outlook, which predicted the utility would keep load-shedding to an average of stage 2 during the colder months, is still in force.

The utility has also said that managing the morning and evening peaks has become increasingly difficult, which threatens to push Eskom to reintroduce rotational power cuts.

So far, the utility has managed to avoid this but has had to reintroduce load-reduction, which reduces electricity supply to areas of elevated demand to ensure its infrastructure is not overloaded.

Eskom emphasised that load-reduction is not load-shedding, as it still has sufficient generating capacity to meet the country’s electricity demand.

“Load reduction is a long-established process that Eskom uses in specific areas when there is sufficient electricity available, but a transformer’s integrity is at risk due to overloading,” it said.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has also cautioned the public against thinking load-shedding is a thing of the past.

“Our electricity system remains vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out a possibility of further load-shedding,” he said.

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This article was first published by Daily Investor and is reproduced with permission.