Big reason load-shedding is suspended
Energy expert Anton Eberhard said renewable energy has reduced residual demand and provided Eskom with space to replenish storage and major plant refurbishments.
On Friday, Eskom announced that load-shedding remained suspended for 163 consecutive days, starting on 26 March 2024.
“Eskom has maintained a constant electricity supply throughout winter, and no load-shedding has been implemented since the start of its current financial year on 1 April 2024,” it said.
At the end of August, Eskom said it expects a load-shedding-free summer outlook due to structural generation improvements.
Eskom maintained an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 67% over the past seven days, with the best-performing stations sitting above 70%.
The power utility highlighted that the improvement is due to accelerating and executing planned maintenance since March 2023.
As part of this maintenance plan, it partnered with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) with in-depth knowledge of the generating units they service.
It helped Eskom significantly reduce unplanned outages to far below the 2024 winter forecast, helping to reduce load-shedding.
Unplanned outages averaged 10,578MW during the past seven days, compared to 15,921MW in the corresponding week last year.
Eskom continued its planned maintenance, which remains in line with its winter maintenance strategy.
The lower breakdowns and higher energy availability factor helped Eskom significantly reduce its diesel consumption to run open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs).
Diesel consumption remains significantly below projected figures for this winter and is considerably lower than in the past two years.
Eskom’s improved performance is a core ingredient to the load-shedding reprieve. However, it is not the only factor.
Professor Anton Eberhard said renewable energy played its part in reducing demand and giving Eskom breathing room to implement its maintenance strategy.
Eberhard is an energy policy and investment specialist and a professor at the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town.
He is highly regarded in the South African energy market and has deep insight into South Africa’s electricity sector.
He said South Africa has around 6,400 MW of publicly procured large solar and wind farms and 6,000 MW of private solar PV, mostly rooftop.
These renewable energy installations have reduced the residual electricity demand that has to be met by Eskom.
The lower electricity demand created more space for replenishing Eskom’s two pumped storage schemes and performing major plant refurbishments.
The table below, courtesy of Eberhard, gives an overview of South Africa’s renewable energy installed capacity.
| Installation | Capacity |
|---|---|
| Concentrated solar power | 500 MW |
| Photovoltaic power stations | 2,287 MW |
| Wind farms | 3,443 MW |
| Hybrid plants | 150 MW |
| Private rooftop PV | 5,953 MW |
| Total installed capacity | 12,383 MW |
This article was first published by Daily Investor and is reproduced with permission.
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