Bad news for cheap last-minute December flights in South Africa

South Africans who plan to fly to their holiday destinations this December but have not yet booked their tickets should not expect cheap last-minute deals.

According to feedback from two major travel agencies, the time to buy these tickets at their best prices has long passed.

The Boyz’s Gerald Klitzke explained that the cheapest fares for local December flight tickets were available six to eight months before departure.

“Everyone who is waiting for those last-minute airline specials is going to be very disappointed because the airlines don’t have to put in last-minute specials… they are all already nearly fully booked,” he said.

Klitzke said flight ticket prices had almost doubled from previous years due to limited seat availability.

Travelstart said that December peak dates were always excluded from any special deals, so waiting and hoping for a good deal was not a wise move.

The Boyz and Travelstart emphasised that people should book their flights as early as possible.

“Rather book well in advance and do a date change if needed than wait for the last minute,” Klitze advised.

“Our clients are already booking for July next year, and Easter Flights are already getting full.”

Travelstart advised those who had not yet booked for December to be flexible on their dates and act with urgency.

“Check days either side of your desired dates to secure the best price and choice of flights,” Travelstart advised.

“If you have not booked your December trip as yet, book it now, your pocket will thank you.”

“It is not only busy with us South Africans travelling, December sees hundreds of thousands of visitors from all over the world coming to South Africa.”

“This creates even more demand of the seat that you want, so get your plans confirmed and beat the rest to the best prices now.”

The feedback is similar to travel agencies’ remarks on December 2023 flight prices a year ago.

That suggests there has been no improvement in general domestic flight seat availability.

MyBroadband searched Cheapflights for December flight tickets between Johannesburg and Cape Town on 1 October 2024.

We found one-way tickets started from around R2,000 in the week before Christmas.

Return tickets with the first flight around the same time and the flight back in the first week of 2025 were about R4,000 each.

These prices were with the departure and return dates falling on Wednesdays, which are generally cheaper days for flights.

South Africa’s flight ticket prices have surged due to a dwindling number of local airlines.

While the Covid-19 pandemic hit the airline industry hard, South Africa still had four low-cost airlines by early 2021 — Lift, Mango, Kulula, and FlySafair.

That selection soon halved.

In July 2021, Mango grounded flights due to a dispute with its parent company, South African Airways, over funding for its business rescue.

It has been inoperational since then and had its airline licence suspended in August 2022.

Mango’s business rescue practitioner, Sipho Sono, had to go to court on several occasions to force the late public enterprises minister, Pravin Gordhan, to make a decision on the sale of Mango to a private company.

Mango return on the cards — but no significant price relief expected

Sono secured a private buyer — Ubuntu Air Services — after the minister failed to appeal the court’s decision.

Sono was adamant that there were reasonable prospects for Mango to be saved and that the market “definitely” needed its return.

However, aviation expert Linden Birns told MyBroadband it was unlikely that Mango’s return would have a significant impact on domestic flight prices.

He expressed uncertainty over the value of acquiring Mango as all that remained was its name.

“There are no aircraft, no personnel, no routes or licences, and no infrastructure for ticketing sales and distribution, revenue management, operations and maintenance,” Birns said.

“If one is going to spend the money on aircraft, staff, skills, or expertise, why not also opt for a clean slate with the name and brand?”

Mango had nine planes in its fleet flying between seven South African airports and one foreign destination — Zanzibar.

The big loss

But perhaps the most significant development has been the closure of Kulula.com operator Comair.

Comair was forced into business rescue in May 2020.

Many people blamed the impact of the pandemic and government lockdowns for Comair’s collapse. However, former Comair CEO Glenn Orsmond said there was far more to it.

He told Business Talk’s Michael Avery that the company lost sight of the core principles that made Comair successful for 75 years:

• Always protect and build cash. It is not profits; it is cash.
• Always have lower costs than your competitors.
• Don’t take on excessive debt.

Orsmond said when he left Comair in 2003 after serving as financial director, these principles were drilled into executives.

However, when he returned as CEO in 2019, he found the company in a shambles.

It had blown its cash on a new Boeing 737 Max, which Orsmond described as a vanity project for Comair to portray itself as a global airline.

Comair had also completely lost control of costs and was plagued by infighting, he said.

The last nail in the coffin was the South African Civil Aviation Authority’s decision to ground Kulula.com planes in March 2022.

Orsmond described it as a political decision which did not have a strong foundation or substantiating evidence.

He said airlines are not safe because of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). Instead, it is because airlines self-regulate. “At all times, Comair has been safe,” he said.

However, one of the CAA’s planes crashed and it was under investigation by the Ethiopian authorities. “They drew up a long list of failures by the CAA,” he said.

It created concerns over aircraft airworthiness, whether the crew was trained, and whether pilot licenses were up to date.

These findings, which they have not accepted, put a lot of pressure on the CAA about its oversight related to safety.

Orsmond said grounding Comair was an attempt to divert attention from the CAA’s failings rather than true concerns about safety.

By June 2022, Comair’s business rescue practitioners confirmed that the company would shut down.

That brought an end to what was South Africa’s longest-running low-cost airline since becoming a democracy.

The impact of Kulula’s shutdown was severe, as it had accounted for roughly 40% of domestic flight seat availability.

Without more airlines or regular flights in South Africa, ticket prices will continue to remain high as demand outstrips supply.