Electric delivery vehicle warning for South Africa

The transportation sector is a major contributor to pollution, accounting for approximately one-quarter (23-25%) of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally.

As companies increasingly prioritise environmental and social responsibilities and investor interest in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors rises, many seek ways to reduce their carbon footprint.

One such area is the booming delivery sector. Given the large contribution to greenhouse emissions, there has been a notable global push to decarbonise transportation.

Electrifying delivery fleets has been touted as a potential solution, although experts say the transition is far from straightforward.

A significant case study recently unfolded in South Africa, where a major pharmaceutical company explored the feasibility of electrifying its urban delivery fleet.

Researchers from the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering’s Centre for Transport Development at the University of Pretoria, in collaboration with the Institute for Mobility in KU Leuven in Belgium’s Centre for Industrial Management, delved into the practicalities of this transition.

To gain a comprehensive understanding, the researchers modelled the performance of each delivery vehicle on the company’s existing road network, factoring in the known emissions characteristics of their current fleet.

By applying a variant of the vehicle routing problem, they were able to simulate the most efficient routes and estimate the total emissions per vehicle.

The study acknowledged that although electric vehicles typically have a higher upfront cost than their fuel-driven counterparts, they offer the compelling advantage of long-term savings on fuel consumption and maintenance.

It highlighted both the considerable potential for emissions reduction and the immense practical challenges that lie ahead, particularly in developing economies.

To comprehensively evaluate the potential impact, the researchers developed two distinct scenarios.

The first model explored the feasibility of a purely electric fleet, mirroring the capacity and number of vehicles in the company’s existing diesel fleet.

This “direct conversion” scenario aimed to determine if current electric vehicle technology could seamlessly replace the existing operations.

The second model investigated a dual-fleet approach, strategically combining both diesel and electric vehicles to optimise performance and address any limitations of a fully electric fleet.

The results of the purely electric fleet model revealed drastic reductions in vehicle emissions and a significant decrease in daily energy consumption.

While environmentally promising, this scenario encountered a critical hurdle: the current battery technology limited the range of the electric vehicles, preventing them from completing 17 of the specified deliveries to customers located outside the feasible range.

This technical infeasibility highlighted that a direct conversion to a purely electric fleet was not a viable immediate solution.

Dual-fleet focus

Consequently, the researchers focused on the dual-fleet scenario to identify the optimal mix of electric and diesel vehicles and their corresponding routes.

The model proposed a fleet consisting of 18 electric and five diesel vehicles.

This hybrid solution yielded significant emissions savings: carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide emissions were reduced by approximately 50%, while hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxides saw even greater decreases.

Notably, particulate matter emissions were reduced by up to 81%.

Crucially, unlike the purely electric scenario, this dual-fleet solution successfully delivered all specified shipments, proving its technical and practical feasibility.

Beyond the environmental benefits, the study also examined the financial implications of the proposed dual-fleet scenario.

The model incorporated both a time component and a distance component (fuel expenses for diesel and electricity costs for electric vehicles).

Comparing the dual-fleet scenario to a simulated base case of the current diesel fleet revealed potential daily savings of over R60,000.

These savings were attributed to a reduction in the overall fleet size and optimised vehicle routings, as well as a significant decrease in the distance cost component.

While these daily savings are considerable, the researchers also factored in the capital expenses associated with purchasing the electric vehicles and installing the necessary charging infrastructure.

Since the vehicles would primarily be charged overnight and all 23 vehicles would be fully utilised, the model suggested the need for one charger per vehicle.

The study estimated that the costs could be recouped within three years, allowing the company to realise a profit from the fourth year onwards.

Word of caution

With all that said, the researchers injected a note of caution, particularly concerning the applicability of such a solution in a developing country context like South Africa.

They emphasised that the electrification of a distribution fleet is heavily dependent on context-specific constraints and opportunities.

A significant constraint is the need for robust charging infrastructure, which currently limits the service area of electric trucks to their battery capacity and the availability of charging at the distribution centre.

Professor Johan Joubert of KU Leuven suggested that purely electric fleets will likely only become broadly feasible with the widespread development of public charging infrastructure.

Furthermore, reliable and clean electricity availability poses a significant challenge in many developing countries.

Planned power supply interruptions (load-shedding), common in South Africa, can leave regions without electricity for extended periods, directly impacting the ability to recharge electric vehicle fleets.

While solar electricity could be considered an alternative, the fact that vehicle charging would primarily occur at night, when solar inverters are often non-operational, adds complexity and cost due to the need for large battery storage solutions.

The researchers also highlighted the adverse environmental effects of increased battery usage and disposal as another critical consideration.

Don’t blindly commit, researchers warn

Overall, the researchers emphasised that electrifying a logistics fleet depends on various contextual factors, such as the availability of suitable electric truck models, a reliable and clean electricity supply, and specific operational needs.

They advised companies to conduct thorough research before making such a significant transition.

While the case study highlighted potential emissions reductions and long-term financial benefits, the researchers cautioned that widespread adoption in South Africa may be premature due to infrastructure and electricity supply constraints.

They recommend a phased approach, including a detailed financial analysis, precise cost assessments, and comprehensive market research, before jumping in.