Good news for South Africans with electric cars

Most electric vehicle (EV) owners in South Africa won’t have to replace their cars’ batteries over their lifetimes.

EV sceptics often make bold statements claiming that buyers will have to spend hundreds of thousands of rand on a new battery after just a few years of driving their vehicle.

However, while battery capacities naturally degrade with time and usage, it will take many years or hundreds of thousands of kilometres of driving before a lithium-ion EV battery loses meaningful range.

That is why reputable carmakers can confidently offer long warranties on their EV batteries, promising at least 70% or 80% original capacity retention for up to eight years or 160,000km.

If the capacity drops below the warranty’s specified percentage within that timeframe or mileage, the manufacturer will repair or replace the battery for free.

While the warranty provides great peace of mind for buyers, the chances that it will be called in seem slim based on the latest real-world EV battery degradations.

A Geotab study from 2024 analysing data from 10,000 EVs found that they lost about 1.8% of their original capacity annually. That was an improvement over the 2.3% average loss measured by 2019.

At 1.8% per year, it would take over 11 years for an EV’s battery pack to drop below 80% of its original capacity and nearly 17 years for it to fall below 70% capacity.

However, degradation tends to decline after an initial sharp dropoff. Therefore, Geotab estimated that EV batteries could last 20 years or longer before needing replacement.

According to Lightstone Auto, the average vehicle age in South Africa was about 10 years and six months in 2022.

Therefore, an EV battery should easily outlast the average car’s lifespan in South Africa.

There are also many examples of EVs that have covered very long distances and still had very usable range.

Real-world examples showing lithium’s mettle

A crowdsourced study by Tesla Model S owners in the Netherlands found that this particular model experienced around 5% capacity degradation after the first 50,000 miles (about 80,500km) of driving.

Degradation slowed thereafter, with roughly 10% degradation by 150,000 to 200,000 miles (roughly 241,400 to 321,900km).

In 2024, Autotrader UK tested a 2016 Tesla Model S that had clocked 692,000km on its original battery and was still being driven daily.

Its state of health was at 72% of its original capacity, meaning it could still cover over 300km on a single charge during highway driving and more than 400km in city driving.

Numbeo has estimated that South African motorists’ average daily two-way commute is 44.2km. Over a year, they would drive roughly 16,133km.

It would take over 42 years to cover the 692,000km that the Tesla Model S managed before its battery dropped to a 72% state of health.

While Tesla’s cars are highly regarded for their low energy consumption, the batteries they use are made by BYD, CATL, LG Chem, and Panasonic, which make batteries for numerous brands.

Battery replacement costs are on the decline

A Recurrent study of over 20,000 EVs found that just 2.5% had their batteries replaced. The highest rate of battery replacements was on first-generation EVs, which were 15 years old.

The two most well-known first-generation EVs are the BMW i3 and Nissan Leaf. One BMW i3 in South Africa has covered over 360,000km since 2017, while retaining over 80% of its original capacity.

Recurrent also pointed out that the cost to replace an EV battery has plummeted in the past decade and is expected to continue declining.

In 2020, the cost of replacing an EV battery in a $30,000 car (R540,000) was around 50% of its value.

As of 2024, that had already dropped to 37% of the value. By 2030, the cost is expected to have dropped to 15% of the car’s value.