South Africans with diesel cars must prepare for a big price increase

South Africans driving diesel-powered cars are currently expected to be most impacted by the fuel price adjustments for July 2025.

According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the wholesale price of 50ppm diesel is expected to increase by 84 cents per litre from Wednesday, 2 July 2025.

That means the cost price a fuel station will pay for 80 litres of diesel — the capacity of many popular double-cab bakkies and large SUVs — could be around R67.20 more.

Due to their superior fuel efficiency, diesel engines are popular among top-selling vehicles like the Toyota Hilux, Toyota Fortuner, and Ford Ranger.

A fuel station that adds a typical 15% retail margin on its diesel will charge R77.28 more to fill up an 80-litre tank.

However, as the retail price of diesel is unregulated, forecourts may apply widely varying margins. Thus, a precise outlook on diesel price increases is not possible, as each station sets its own prices.

The expected 82-cent increase in the 500ppm diesel price will not impact drivers of modern diesel vehicles, but could push up consumer price inflation.

500ppm diesel is used primarily in industrial, manufacturing, agricultural, and transport applications. That means it can have an impact on consumer price inflation.

On the more predictable side, the CEF’s latest data points to a 55-cent increase in the retail price of unleaded 95 petrol and a 52-cent increase for unleaded 93 petrol.

Based on the current trajectory, a 45-litre petrol tank, which is typically for a hatchback or small sedan, will cost about R24.75 more to fill up with unleaded 95 in July 2025.

A 60-litre tank, common in mid-sized SUVs and large sedans, will cost R33 more to fill up. Filling up the largest 80-litre petrol tanks will cost R44 extra.

The table below compares the current and expected inland prices for the four main types of fuel supplied in South Africa and how much more it could cost to fill up common tank sizes.

Oil price surges — but rand puts up a fight

The primary contributor to the expected increases was a surging oil price in mid-June, amid intensified conflict in the Middle East.

On 13 June 2025, Israel began launching attacks on Iran in what it described as pre-emptive measures to disrupt the country’s nuclear weapons development programme.

Israel struck nuclear and military facilities and certain high-priority targets in residential areas, as well as Iran’s state broadcaster. Iran retaliated with its own ballistic missile attacks, primarily targeting Tel Aviv.

The oil price receded slightly a few days into the attacks but jumped again when the US entered the conflict on 20 June 2025.

The US bombed three of Iran’s nuclear development facilities suspected of working on weapons technology. Iran responded with an attack on the US Air Force base in Qatar.

The volatile situation sparked market speculation of reduced fuel supply from Iran and four more of the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries in the conflict region.

At one point, Bloomberg analysts expected a worst-case scenario for Iran’s retaliation would be the closure of a maritime chokepoint that could see the oil price surge from $77 to $130 per barrel.

While the rand has been erratic amid the conflict, its average performance during the fuel pricing review period for July has reduced the increases by around 15 cents.