The Linux vs. Microsoft war is over
It’s been 20 years since a geek from Helsinki first started dabbling with an operating system known as Linux. For many of those 20 years the upstart open source operating system has been seen as a potential Windows killer. So, on this anniversary, where do we stand?
Fans will tell you that Linux is one of the most dominant operating systems in the world and is showing signs of being a clear winner. Microsoft fans will tell you the exact opposite. In a sense, they are both right.
Over the past 20 years Linux has developed to a point where it not only has a presence in just about every IT market that exists but actually dominates many of those sectors. It is dominant on the web, it is becoming increasingly dominant in mobile devices thanks to Android, it underpins an ever-increasing array of consumer devices from GPSes to set-top boxes, and is part of almost all new emerging technologies. Linux also dominates the supercomputer market, with more than 90% of the world’s top 500 supercomputers running Linux.
Yet ask an average PC user what Linux is and you’re likely to be greeted with a confused look. That’s because most desktop PC users know only Windows. The idea that there is anything other than Windows to run on a PC is unimaginable to them. Which is why Microsoft would be right in saying that its Windows is dominant.
Kicking a puppy
Jim Zemlin, director of the Linux Foundation, is pretty pleased with the progress of Linux and is blunt in his assessment of Microsoft: “I think we just don’t care that much [about Microsoft] anymore. They used to be our big rival, but now it’s kind of like kicking a puppy.”
Linux developer Jeff Hoogland is a little more pragmatic about the success of Linux in his response to Zemlin’s comments: “If Microsoft is a puppy, then it is one that has eaten all the desert in the house.”
Various statistics exist on the relative market shares of operating systems and while there are variations because of methodology, the harsh reality for Linux is inescapable. NetApplications, for example, reports that Windows accounts for almost 90% (89.58% to be precise) of the global operating system market share. With 5% of the remaining portion being taken up by Apple, there is a scant 5% remaining for everyone else. Among them is Linux with just shy of a 1% share.
No matter what store you put in these various statistics the truth is that Linux is just a bit player in the desktop operating system market.
The good news for Linux fans, however, is that the real growth in the market right now is in mobile and that is an area where there are really only two players at this time: Apple and Linux. Linux, through Android primarily, is getting stronger by the day.
Microsoft, on the other hand, is just a marginal player in the mobile space at this time. According to Gartner, Microsoft’s mobile smartphone OS share for 2010 was just 4.2% while Android’s was close to 23%. If Gartner is right, Android could reach 50% market share by 2012.
In many senses Linux has beaten Microsoft – but not Windows.
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