Windows 7 – Linux showdown
A year ago Microsoft looked not unlike a company that had lost its way. It’s Vista operating system was a bomb, Linux was making headway on ultra-portable netbooks and user-demand had it extending Windows XP sales long after its planned death.
Today, however, things look vastly different. Partly because Microsoft is now effectively downplaying Vista to such a degree that it’s as if the company has written it off. In its place, all the talk is of Windows 7, the Vista successor that Microsoft is hoping will secure its place at the top of the operating system pile for a few more years to come. Microsoft is also talking about cloud computing, hosted services and even an online Office version to compete with Google.
Suddenly, the company that has sat atop the PC world for so long actually looks like it could stay there, if it can shore up its advantages. And one of those advantages is its still dominant position over Linux, even though that looked a little shaky earlier this year.
First there was the One Laptop Per Child project to make cheap PCs for the children of the developing world. The OLPC was initially planned to ship with Linux installed and Microsoft had to move quickly to make sure it got a foot in the door. A developing world full of Linux users was not part of Microsoft’s agenda.
Then there was the netbook revolution. Two years ago no-one even knew what a netbook was but suddenly this year every hardware maker had one and most of them were running Linux.
Netbooks were also cheap which made them an easy buy for consumers and again Microsoft had to move quickly to shore up the market. Initially it plugged Vista on one of the first HP netbooks but it was clearly too bloated for the little machine. So, along with other pressures, Microsoft extended XP’s life. It ran contrary to Microsoft’s plan to get the world to upgrade to Windows Vista but rather continue with XP than have millions of users switching to Linux.
Lessons
The question most people are asking is whether Microsoft has learned something over the past couple of years. The answer is probably yes. It’s ill-fated Vista operating system showed that it could no longer plough ahead at its own pace with a "build it and they will come" approach. Users are different, they want different things and they’ll vote with their money.
A lightweight netbook needs a lightweight operating system. Linux was offering that and now we can expect Microsoft to do the same with Windows 7.
Interestingly in some of the earliest public demonstrations of Windows 7 Microsoft has already made a point of showing off the operating system on low-powered laptops, clearly marking it as a netbook contender.
Can Windows 7 dominate the netbook market? Yes. Already Microsoft’s XP is shipped on at least seventy percent of Asus’ EEE PCs and that was the company which originally kickstarted the Linux netbook revolution. Chances are Windows 7 will enjoy the same success.
There is another, perhaps more important reason Microsoft can dominate this market. If users can buy a low-cost Windows-based PC for relatively little money there is very little incentive to even try Linux, which just makes Windows stronger.
For Linux it is a significant challenge. Linux’s one real opportunity was that it could be customised for a broad range of hardware and going head-to-head with Windows Vista on a low-powered netbook was always a winning proposition. But if Windows 7 is as good as Linux on a netbook the fight becomes an almost impossible one. Consumer mindshare dictates that most people will sooner hand over a little bit extra to buy a netbook with a Windows that they know than a little bit less for something installed with Linux, which they have never heard of.
Linux versus Windows discussion
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