SA facing ‘multiple power crises’
SA WAS facing critical problems at all levels of its electricity supply chain and a holistic approach was needed to find a solution, South African Institute of Electrical Engineers president Ian McKechnie said yesterday at a “coping forum” the institute organised.
Electricity supply concerns had so far largely centred on the failure of Eskom to develop adequate generating capacity to keep pace with growing demand.
However, transmission as well as distribution were “particularly critical” issues that needed urgent attention, McKechnie said.
Several power cuts during the past year were related to distribution and transmission problems, rather than supply shortage. Constraints with transmission to Western Cape in particular were critical.
A National Energy Regulator of SA audit released last year painted a grim picture of the state of SA’s power distribution infrastructure, with networks of many municipalities described as being in a poor state, while some were found to be not viable in the medium term. The report found initial capital expenditure of almost R1bn was required to bring systems up to standard, followed by annual investments of R422m.
The refurbishment backlog at the end of 2005 for utilities was estimated at R431m; it has grown every year in which there was no investment.
The audit was especially critical of the state of small municipalities’ distribution networks .
Problems with transmission and distribution were set to significantly compound SA’s power problems. “(Power) distribution problems are another crisis in the making, if not already with us,” McKechnie said. “Generation is part of a larger problem. What is needed is a broad-based national task team approach.”
Businesses have already lost millions as the electricity supply system failed in a string of power outages that started in 2005 and which have intensified since January 10 this year. Eskom has rationed power supply daily, unable to supply national demand.
Sharing Eskom projections with the forum, its resources and strategy MD, Steve Lennon, yesterday showed that under a high demand forecast, load-shedding would be highly likely, virtually daily, until August.
With reserve margins at 8% rather than the desired 15%, the utility’s stabilisation plan was aimed at recovery and preservation of its systems through load shedding in the short term, power rationing in the medium term, and demand management in the next four years, Lennon said.
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