Cellphone users ‘will mostly stay put’
The cellular operators have invested about R300m in a switching centre to handle the process and a central database to track which number is on which network.
But fresh research shows that only a fraction of customers are likely to use it over the next two years once it debuts on September 18.
Of SA’s 33-million cellphone users, only 5-million have a contract binding them to a specific operator. Of those, perhaps 10% would use number portability to hop from one network to another, according to research by World Wide Worx.
Vodacom stands to lose the most because of its larger customer base, while MTN and Cell C should gain more than they lose because of their smaller customer bases, said World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck.
He believes Cell C could capitalise if it did more to promote its industry leading prices, but he doubts that newly launched Virgin Mobile will see any major gains.
The research found only 25% of consumers know what number portability is, but 71% of companies understand it because it could cut the cost of running their business.
When the service was explained, 27% of consumers said they would switch, against 19% of small business and 22% of larger corporations. “That should ring some alarm bells for the operators,” Goldstuck said.
Vodacom has a 54% market share of corporate cellphone accounts — where Cell C is almost nonexistent, giving it plenty to play for.
But the “inertia factor” would keep the figures down, said Goldstuck. “It takes a lot to get people to change an account into which they have invested a lot of time, money and emotion.” He says fewer than half of those who say they will switch, will actually do so.
The main reason for intending to switch is that people believe they will get a cheaper package elsewhere. Yet Goldstuck does not anticipate a price war. The networks were more likely to step up service or offer more products rather than cut the costs, he said. Just 10% of customers planning to switch were motivated by poor service.
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