Is WiMax dead?
For years, WiMax has been held up as something of a panacea, a technology that would finally deliver ubiquitous and cheap wireless broadband, especially in emerging markets. But it’s taken so long to get off the ground that it’s in danger of being superseded.
WiMax is one of the most hyped technologies in history. The computer and telecommunications industries have long seen WiMax, a so-called fourth-generation (4G) wireless technology as a way of driving down telecom costs and bridging the digital divide in the poorer parts of the world.
But, as cellular operators continue to ramp up their investment in 3G, the outlook for WiMax seems to be getting murkier. And the next generation of cellular technology, known as Long Term Evolution (LTE), is set to arrive in a few years, with broadband speeds many times higher than is possible on copper-based digital subscriber lines.
Mobile operators MTN and Vodacom are already deploying 3G-based High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) networks capable of theoretical downloads of up to 7,2Mbit/s (nearly twice as fast as Telkom’s fastest broadband product). That is set to double again, to 14,4Mbit/s, in the next 12 months. And the 3G roadmap is promising speeds a few years from now of up to 42Mbit/s.
LTE, which is still some years from commercial deployment (analysts say it should start taking off in 2011 or 2012), will ultimately offer speeds of 300Mbit/s or more.
Brian Neilson, director of Johannesburg-based research firm BMI-TechKnowledge, says WiMax is a “little too late to be a serious challenger to LTE on the mobile side”.
Neilson says it is the mobile operators whose influence will be most strongly felt in broadband in Africa, though there will still be what he calls “strong niches” for fixed-wireless players using WiMax and a wireless technology called CDMA EV-DO (Telkom rival Neotel has built its first consumer offerings using EV-DO).
But it’s in 3G and later in LTE where the real action is likely to be, Neilson says. BMI-T says there are already 14 commercial 3G HSPA networks in nine African countries – SA, Namibia, Angola, Nigeria, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Morocco and Egypt. Libya and Mozambique will follow soon.
Even Telkom has said it has plans to build a 3G HSPA network — a startling development given that fixed-line operators have typically preferred to look at WiMax for their wireless strategies. Telkom has a limited WiMax network.
A recent BMI-T research report, written by telecom consultant Martyn Roetter, has cast serious doubts on WiMax’s potential. Roetter says cellular rivals enjoy a considerable head start, especially in mobile broadband, and it will be difficult for WiMax operators to catch up. The chances of WiMax obtaining significant market share are greatest in countries that have not yet seen the widespread roll-out of 3G cellular technologies. But even then, it has a hope only where telecom regulators have moved quickly to allocate radio frequency spectrum.
Spectrum and coverage are ultimately more significant than the “quasi-ideological and generally confusing, self-serving, and misleading statements uttered by advocates in the vendor community”, Roetter says.
Despite this, Motorola regional director for wireless broadband, Noel Kirkaldy, says WiMax is not falling behind. It is being developed within the normal industry timeframe for new technologies, he says. The price of WiMax devices is falling sharply and from next year the technology will be built into some Intel-based laptops.
Will that be enough to save it from obscurity? Only time will tell, but there’s little doubt that WiMax has lost some of its early edge and the hype that went along with it.
First published as the column Technology & You in the Financial Mail of August 29 2008
Loading ...