The outlook between 11 January 2021 and 12 April 2021 shows that the likely risk scenario is in the red every week over this period.<\/p>\n
Energy expert Chris Yelland warned that the forecast is only for three months, and that the situation can extend well beyond April.<\/p>\n
He added that there is nothing that Eskom is currently doing which will significantly alter the situation which it finds itself in.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is nothing Eskom can do other than working hard on maintenance and bringing Medupi and Kusile to completion,\u201d Yelland said.<\/p>\n
Professor Anton Eberhard from the University of Cape Town described the situation as \u201ccode red for the next three months\u201d.<\/p>\n
He added that he does not understand the government\u2019s lack of concern regarding this issue.<\/p>\n
\u201cPower cuts will cripple South Africa\u2019s post COVID-19 economic recovery. Load-shedding cannot be the new norm,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Eberhard said Eskom cannot solve South Africa\u2019s power crisis alone and pleaded for regulatory reform to make it easier for companies and municipalities to generate their own power.<\/p>\n
The average age of Eskom\u2019s current power fleet is nearly 40 years, of which 11,000MW is set to be decommissioned by 2030.<\/p>\n
With R480 billion in debt, Eskom cannot finance new capacity and the government doesn\u2019t have the money to help.<\/p>\n
\u201cSouth Africa is now reliant on private investment for new power,\u201d Eberhard said.<\/p>\n
The table below shows the three-month outlook for load-shedding in South Africa.<\/p>\n
Minister of mineral resources and energy Gwede Mantashe has been in office for just under two years but has yet to conclude a single government backed contract for new power.<\/p>\n \u201cThe IRP mandated 5th round of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Independent Power Project Programme has been stalled since 2015,\u201d Eberhard said.<\/p>\n Instead of implementing the least-cost options in the Integrated Energy Plan, Mantashe has created irrelevant diversions through punting expensive nuclear and coal options which have no chance of solving South Africa\u2019s power crisis in the next decade.<\/p>\n \u201cSouth Africa\u2019s energy minister has initiated an emergency power programme which was supposed to deliver power in months, but which is now stretching into years,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Every month of delay in launching a new auction for power as specified in South Africa\u2019s least-cost electricity plan means another month of load-shedding.<\/p>\n According to Eberhard there is huge frustration among electricity users with the regulatory impediments in South Africa\u2019s power sector.<\/p>\n He argues electricity users should have the freedom to invest in their own power solutions amidst the energy crisis in South Africa.<\/p>\n \u201cMinister Mantashe thinks everything is fine, but everything is patently not fine. The lights are going off and we\u2019ll continue to see crippling load-shedding until there are bold regulatory and structural reforms,\u201d Eberhard said.<\/p>\n Yelland echoed Eberhard\u2019s views, saying the government\u2019s planned procurement of new generation capacity is not going to provide alleviation to the shortage within the nest two to three years.<\/p>\n South African households and businesses will therefore have to take responsibility for their own energy futures.<\/p>\n \u201cTo do this effectively and quickly, the government needs to reduce the regulatory burden and red tape involved with the registration and licensing of self-generation,\u201d Yelland said.<\/p>\n The government should also remove the restrictions around private power generation being fed back into the grid.<\/p>\n South Africa first experienced load-shedding in November 2007 with rolling blackouts leaving the country in the dark.<\/p>\n The government was quick to promise long-term solutions, which included the construction of two mega coal-fired power stations \u2013 Medupi and Kusile.<\/p>\n These two power stations promised enough additional power to solve South Africa\u2019s electricity crisis but delays in completing these stations and design problems dogged these projects.<\/p>\n Medupi and Kusile, which were originally expected to be completed by 2015, are still not completed or operating at capacity.<\/p>\n Yelland said Medupi and Kusile has become the Achilles heel of Eskom.<\/p>\n \u201cThey are a big part of the cause of Eskom\u2019s debt which makes the power utility financially unsustainable,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The ongoing problems and Eskom and delays in bringing Medupi and Kusile online has resulted in continued load-shedding for thirteen years.<\/p>\n Apart from a lull between 2009 and 2012, and then again between 2016 and 2017, South Africa experienced rolling blackouts every year between 2007 and 2021.<\/p>\n What is of particular concern is that load-shedding has been getting worse over the years.<\/p>\n Load-shedding increased both in terms of the number of days and MWh shed over the last few years.<\/p>\n In 2018, for example, South Africa experienced 15 days of load-shedding during which 812,205MWh were shed.<\/p>\n This increased to 36 days and 494,759MWh in 2019 and to 52 days and over 1,260,000MWh in 2020.<\/p>\n The tables below provide an overview of the number of days of load-shedding and the amount of power shed since 2007.<\/p>\n![\"Eskom](\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Eskom-outlook.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe government dragging its feet<\/h3>\n
Thirteen years of load-shedding in South Africa<\/h3>\n