The “real” matric pass rate of the class of 2021 is 53% \u2014 substantially worse than the official figure given by basic education minister Angie Motshekga.<\/p>\n
On Thursday evening, Motshekga announced that the pass rate of 2021’s matrics<\/a><\/strong> was 76.4%, up marginally from 76.2% for 2020’s candidates.<\/p>\n While the results were slightly better than in 2020, they were still down from the pre-pandemic 81.3% for 2019’s matrics.<\/p>\n Motshekga described the circumstances under which 2021’s Grade 12s had written their exams as “hostile” in light of the disruptive impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n Basil Manuel, managing director of the education union Naptosa, previously said<\/strong><\/a> he would be surprised if there were any significant improvements considering that the pandemic had severely impacted this cohort of matrics over two years.<\/p>\n While Motshekga was beaming over the results under challenging circumstances, some might feel the pass rate she announced was not a true reflection of the reality.<\/p>\n Advocacy groups like Equal Education and opposition parties such as the Democratic Alliance (DA) believe that the throughput rate of learners from earlier grades to matriculating provides a more accurate perspective on the state of school-level education.<\/p>\n Equal Education has used grade 2 enrolments as the denominator for the true matric pass rate, while the DA has used the respective grade 10 intake to measure the actual pass rate.<\/p>\n Using grade 10 enrolments is a good baseline, as school students can exit the basic education system after grade 9.<\/p>\n It is, therefore, reasonable to assume those who enrol for grade 10 have ambitions to finish matric.<\/p>\n The table below shows the real matric pass rate based on learner throughput from the Grade 2, Grade 8, and Grade 10 enrollments of 2021’s matrics.<\/p>\n