The Eskom chairman cautioned that Eskom\u2019s coal fleet recovery would not be achieved within the short term. \u201cIt will take at least two years to improve the EAF from the current 58% to 70%,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The energy availability factor shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed. It is a core measure of performance.<\/p>\n
If the EAF can be improved to around 70%, load-shedding will be a thing of the past, and South Africa will have electricity security.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe journey of the turnaround will see a stretch target EAF being driven toward 60% EAF by 31 March 2023, a mere ten weeks away, then 65% EAF by 31 March 2024 and 70% by 31 March 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n
It is easy to pick random targets you would like to achieve \u2013 in this case, 60%, 65%, and 70%. Any primary school kid could have done that.<\/p>\n
However, without a detailed strategy, significant interventions, and exceptional execution, it is nothing more than a dream. A wish for a miracle.<\/p>\n
Eskom\u2019s latest weekly generation availability statistics showed that the EAF for 2023, to date, is 53.03%.<\/p>\n
The energy availability factor increased in March, ranging between 53.02% and 58.50%. However, it was partly a result of lower planned maintenance.<\/p>\n
The statistics show that Eskom is far away from its March 2023 target of 60% and is well below last year\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n
The chart below shows Eskom\u2019s energy availability factor (EAF) for the first twelve weeks of the year.<\/p>\n
Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe told ENCA South Africa\u2019s energy crisis could be solved within six to twelve months.<\/p>\n Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan also gave the new Eskom board, appointed in October 2022, a mandate to increase the energy availability factor (EAF) to 75%.<\/p>\n However, energy experts Anton Eberhard and Chris Yelland warned that these targets are misguided and mislead the public.<\/p>\n Eberhard, a professor at the University of Cape Town,\u00a0said it is very hard<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0to turn the EAF around without more spare generation capacity.<\/p>\n \u201cBringing back four damaged units at Kusile, one at Medupi, and a Koeberg nuclear unit will help, but it won\u2019t be enough,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Energy analyst\u00a0Chris Yelland explained<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0that the energy availability factor is on a declining downward trend, which has been so for the past five years.<\/p>\n The EAF is based on the average performance of 90 generators in Eskom\u2019s electricity generation fleet. \u201cYou cannot maintain or fix them simultaneously,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n What this means, mathematically, is that the EAF is a continuum. There cannot be a discontinuity \u2013 also known as a step change \u2013 in the EAF trend.<\/p>\n \u201cTo increase Eskom\u2019s EAF, there must first be a slowdown. It then has to bottom out, stabilise, and start to rise. This process will take several years,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is mathematically impossible for this to happen in the 2023\/2024 or 2024\/2025 financial years,\u201d Yelland said.<\/p>\n \u201cTalk of a 70% or 75% energy availability factor is misleading the public, and it is not achievable by Eskom.\u201d<\/p>\n Commenting on Eskom\u2019s latest EAF numbers, Yelland said, \u201cthere can be good weeks and bad weeks, and very good weeks and very bad weeks\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s kind of random until one analyses the longer-term trends,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n He provided a chart comparing Eskom\u2019s EAF in 2021, 2022, and 2023, which shows a big decline year-on-year.<\/p>\n Eskom energy availability factor 2021\u20132023W12. Data: Eskom; Graph: EE Business Intelligence<\/p><\/div>\n This article was first published by Daily Investor<\/a><\/strong> and is republished with permission.<\/em><\/p>\n Eskom missed its March 2023 energy availability factor target of 60% by a significant margin, which shows its turnaround journey is not on track.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341108,"featured_media":467549,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"idle","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"","_sma_facebook_post_id":"","_sma_instagram_post_id":"","_sma_threads_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[80335],"tags":[181,35,51867,81715],"class_list":["post-486993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-eskom","tag-headline","tag-loadshedding","tag-mpho-makwana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/486993"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341108"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=486993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/486993\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/467549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=486993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=486993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=486993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Eskom-EAF-2023W1-12.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nPolitical dreams versus reality<\/strong><\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Eskom-EAF-2021W1-2023W12.jpg\")
<\/a>
\nNow read:\u00a0Eskom tests paying residential estates and small business to switch off their power<\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"