{"id":50015,"date":"2012-05-16T10:00:51","date_gmt":"2012-05-16T08:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=50015"},"modified":"2012-05-16T13:07:28","modified_gmt":"2012-05-16T11:07:28","slug":"the-worst-ever-tech-predictions-in-sa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/technology\/50015-the-worst-ever-tech-predictions-in-sa.html","title":{"rendered":"The worst ever tech predictions in SA"},"content":{"rendered":"

Over the past few years many local technology and government leaders have made predictions which were short sighted, and in some cases simply stupid.\u00a0 There were also some predictions which were right on the button.<\/p>\n

Some of the most prominent predictions revolved around the sustainability of uncapped ADSL<\/a>, the launch of 3G<\/a> in South Africa, local loop unbundling<\/a> and more recently, e-tolling.<\/p>\n

The people mentioned in this article are however in good company.\u00a0 Bill Gates<\/a>, Sir Alan Sugar and even Lord Kelvin failed miserably to predict the future in some instances.<\/p>\n

Microsoft<\/a> founder Bill Gates\u2019 prediction in January 2004 at the World Economic Forum that “Spam would be dead in 24 months” was less than prophetic. Gates even got it wrong about his own company when he said in 1983 that “we will never make a 32-bit operating system.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other less-than-prophetic predictions include: IBM<\/a> chairman Thomas Watson’s 1943 comment that \u201cthere is a world market for maybe five computers\u201d; Lord Kelvin\u2019s 1897 prediction that \u201cradio has no future\u201d; and Sir Alan Sugar\u2019s 2005 prediction that “next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here are some of the prominent South African predictions which made headlines.\u00a0 For good measure we will start with a prediction from former MWEB<\/a> CEO Rudi Jansen<\/a> that did indeed turned out to be prophetic.<\/p>\n

\"Rudi<\/a>

Rudi Jansen - MWEB CEO<\/p><\/div>\n

In October 2010 former MWEB CEO Rudi Jansen said that the excitement and uptake of its uncapped ADSL products showed the massive pent-up demand of uncapped services, and that anyone who thinks that one can go back to a \u2018capped world\u2019 is completely misguided. \u201cYou can never go back. You can never offer an inferior service,\u201d said Jansen.<\/p>\n

At a time when many people questioned the sustainability of uncapped broadband solutions, Jansen\u2019s words were prophetic.\u00a0 Uncapped ADSL is now commonplace with all the major Internet Service Providers (ISPs) offering uncapped services. <\/em><\/p>\n

\"Justin<\/a>

Justin Spratt<\/p><\/div>\n

Former Internet Solutions<\/a> executive Justin Spratt<\/a> wrote in April 2010 that \u201cthere are technical reasons why \u2018uncapped\u2019 isn\u2019t what most think it is. Overseas experience tells us that uncapped products are not the future \u2026 The better solution is higher capped products that provide excellent user experiences.\u201d<\/p>\n

A few years on and uncapped ADSL is stronger than ever \u2013 even Internet Solutions has strengthened their uncapped ADSL product range. Jansen 1, Spratt 0.<\/em><\/p>\n

In April 2010 Neotel<\/a> said that it does not believe that the current price war is sustainable by its participants who are all low-margin resellers of Telkom\u2019s<\/a> ADSL services.\u00a0 \u201cThere is likely to be significant consolidation or even failure of some players if Telkom continues to capture most of the margin on these services,\u201d Neotel said.<\/p>\n

Uncapped ADSL ISP prices continued to drop, and after Telkom\u2019s IPConnect price cuts this trend simply accelerated. Neotel themselves had to cut their prices to remain competitive.<\/em><\/p>\n

In April 2011 Brian Armstrong, Senior Managing Executive for Enterprise Markets at Telkom, said that Telkom has been investigating the feasibility of an uncapped ADSL solution, but early indications are that businesses should not expect an uncapped ADSL solution from them any time soon. Armstrong added that only 3% of their current 9GB ADSL subscribers exceed their cap, which tells them that the current account sizes are adequate for most of their subscribers.<\/p>\n

Only a few months later (30 September 2011) Telkom launched uncapped ADSL services at competitive prices. Telkom said that thanks to cheaper bandwidth and better network management tools, uncapped ADSL services were sustainable and profitable.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Siphiwe<\/a>

Siphiwe Nyanda<\/p><\/div>\n

In a press statement issued on 15 July 2010, Communications Minister Siphiwe Nyanda<\/a> dismissed as \u201cfalse, spurious and malicious\u201d allegations that he was about to suspend the Director-General in his Department, Mamodupi Mohlala<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Either Nyanda had no clue what was going on in his department or it was the worst attempt at spin ever. His statement came only days before another statement from the ministry issued on 23 July stating that: \u201cIn the interests of the Department, the staff and the government, the Minister has come to the conclusion that it would be best to release Ms Mohlala from her position as Director General with effect from 23 July 2010.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Tshilidzi<\/a>

Tshilidzi Marwala<\/p><\/div>\n

Local Loop Unbundling (LLU)<\/a> Committee chairman Tshilidzi Marwala<\/a> said in mid-2007 that the LLU process will be completed in 2011.\u00a0 Marwala said that he believed that \u201cby the end of 2007 all the mechanisms will be in place for Telkom to open up the local loop to rivals\u201d and that he expected Telkom to start giving rivals access to its copper infrastructure by January 2008.<\/p>\n

Marwala clearly was not well versed when it comes to the local telecommunications environment and dealing with ICASA<\/a> and Telkom. Five years after Marwala made his less-than-prophetic predictions, the only real development was that Telkom dropped the price of their wholesale ADSL service by 30%.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Jeffrey<\/a>

Jeffrey Hedberg<\/p><\/div>\n

Former Cell C<\/a> CEO Jeffrey Hedberg<\/a> said in early 2008 that \u201c3G is hype and we won\u2019t fall prey to hype,\u201d arguing that there is no business case for 3G.<\/p>\n

Mobile broadband is extremely important for any mobile operator, and Hedberg\u2019s decision definitely had a negative impact on Cell C\u2019s ability to compete against Vodacom<\/a> and MTN<\/a>. Less than two years after Hedberg\u2019s comments, Cell C invested billions into a 3G network to stay competitive.<\/em><\/p>\n

Exactmobile\u2019s Gavin Penkin<\/a> also questioned Vodacom\u2019s 3G network rollout in 2004, saying that \u201cFor the most part, corporates are not using GPRS, so why would they use 3G? \u2026 The market is 18 months away from being ready to use 3G services and, until then, launching a 3G network would just be a waste of money.\u201d<\/p>\n

Vodacom\u2019s early launch of 3G gave it a particularly strong position in the corporate data market, a lead which their competitors are still battling to narrow.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Jimmy<\/a>

Jimmy Manyi<\/p><\/div>\n

Cabinet spokesman and GCIS<\/a> chief Jimmy Manyi<\/a> said in February that Gauteng toll fees are set to become a fact of life. \u201cThis is not just a bad dream; it\u2019s a reality, it\u2019s going to happen.\u201d With effect from April 30, he said the new toll fees will kick in.<\/p>\n

It is now mid-May, and Gauteng motorists are happily using the highways without paying toll fees.\u00a0 SANRAL<\/a> has been interdicted and restrained from levying and collecting tolls, the High Court in Pretoria ruled on Saturday 28 April.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Department of Communications (DoC)<\/a> missed so many deadlines that it is challenging to know where to start. Here are two prominent deadlines from the DoC which were missed (by a country mile).<\/p>\n

\"Ivy<\/a>

Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri<\/p><\/div>\n

On 22 May 2001 the late Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri<\/a> said that the licensing of the second national operator (SNO) to compete with Telkom will be finalised in the first half of 2002.<\/p>\n

The SNO (now known as Neotel) was eventually licensed on 9 December 2005, nearly four years behind schedule.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sentech<\/a> is on schedule to meet government’s commitment by providing about 80% Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT)<\/a> coverage by 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup. Further, Sentech intends to launch at least one high definition television (HDTV) satellite channel, in time for the 2010 Soccer World Cup.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s be short here \u2013 it did not happen.\u00a0 Not even close!<\/em><\/p>\n

Do you know of any other poor predictions? Post them using the forum or comment below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many prominent South African technology and government leaders have underestimated the power of time to prove them wrong<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"idle","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"","_sma_facebook_post_id":"","_sma_instagram_post_id":"","_sma_threads_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[11655,35,9303,11657,213,107,557,41],"class_list":["post-50015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-gavin-penkin","tag-headline","tag-jimmy-manyi","tag-justin-spratt","tag-mweb","tag-neotel","tag-rudi-jansen","tag-vodacom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50015"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50015"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50015\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50207,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50015\/revisions\/50207"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}